MLB · resolved market
Phillies vs. Rays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4084263738c19ae8019a41a90c66534c28ef5d813a92b9ab5f66decdb0adf029
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philliesof Phillies, Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3b1…6f55backed Phillies | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.18 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Rays | 42c | 1,559$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.34 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Rays | 40c | 1,091$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.46 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Rays | 39c | 1,025$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.79 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Rays | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 416 | 43.8%182 W · 234 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Phillies | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Phillies | 54c | 648.15$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.15 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Phillies | 72c | 598$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.92 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked Rays | 37c | 542.65$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 394 | 36%142 W · 252 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Phillies | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rays | 47c | 445.61$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.86 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Rays | 46c | 405.58$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.57 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Rays | 20c | 300$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Rays | 45c | 271.82$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.32 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Phillies | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Phillies | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Rays | 45c | 154$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…ccb7backed Phillies | 52c | 135$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Phillies | 52c | 127$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.96 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed Rays | 41c | 120$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Phillies | 76c | 110$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 203 | 67%136 W · 67 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Rays | 48c | 104.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Phillies | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88cf…7d31backed Phillies | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 198 | 49.5%98 W · 100 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Rays | 29c | 75.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Rays | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6f…0142backed Phillies | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Phillies | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Rays | 45c | 47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Phillies | 55c | 47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Rays | 49c | 43.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Phillies | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Rays | 48c | 35.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Rays | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Rays | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Rays | 45c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…3c32backed Phillies | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.