Golf · resolved market

Will Jon Rahm finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Augusta National Invitational?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4087875de6c93f5c10af86ead5bfd2aa6a2785a170bf87f538bb9c5ebf355a6a

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 12, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,863
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,888

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,863 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Golf
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6239…c24fbacked Yes	35c	321.85$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.16	268	39.9%107 W · 161 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked No	28c	290.7$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$209.14	37	45.9%17 W · 20 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb143…cadebacked Yes	36c	249.98$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.99	62	14.5%9 W · 53 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-50.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x168a…da29backed No	31c	207.25$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$143	38	57.9%22 W · 16 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed Yes	69c	196.28$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.43	49	18.4%9 W · 40 L	-3.1wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked No	64c	148.42$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.96	225	46.7%105 W · 120 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No	68c	147.88$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.58	254	49.2%125 W · 129 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2a4…3ee9backed Yes	70c	129.48$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.93	172	26.7%46 W · 126 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58ca…0672backed No	30c	95.8$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.06	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	+1.4wins	+0.08per pick	54cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No	64c	49.25$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.79	108	50%54 W · 54 L	+6.7wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5bc5…c64dbacked No	43c	25$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.25	102	68.6%70 W · 32 L	+14.0wins	+0.14per pick	55cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xff4b…d019backed Yes	57c	24.36$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.88	58	48.3%28 W · 30 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Jon Rahm finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Augusta National Invitational?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event