Golf · resolved market

Will Ludvig Aberg finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Augusta National Invitational?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdad1027f892fd89f72520e7b8c0387fe59128d48fe299cdb1f8ff6cd3bf3a979

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 12, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $4,035
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $4,052

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,035 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Golf
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0813…d302backed No	42c	812.36$338 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$474	40	52.5%21 W · 19 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked No	42c	703.35$296 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$407.69	37	45.9%17 W · 20 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2a4…3ee9backed Yes	59c	616.23$363 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$362.65	172	26.7%46 W · 126 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb143…cadebacked Yes	38c	544.46$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.1	62	14.5%9 W · 53 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-50.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked No	45c	515.96$233 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$283.2	268	39.9%107 W · 161 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked No	58c	513.41$299 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$214.53	225	46.7%105 W · 120 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0d3…e6f7backed Yes	57c	220$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.4	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-2.2wins	-0.22per pick	42cpaid	-72%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed Yes	57c	179.46$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.29	49	18.4%9 W · 40 L	-3.1wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x424e…4161backed Yes	57c	175.51$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.04	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.57per pick	57cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Yes	58c	175.04$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.52	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-3.2wins	-0.20per pick	45cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3ad7…86bfbacked Yes	59c	165.32$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.54	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	33cpaid	-10%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dff…e1bdbacked Yes	59c	165.32$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.54	35	17.1%6 W · 29 L	-3.0wins	-0.08per pick	26cpaid	-61.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x78d7…1273backed Yes	60c	130.13$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.08	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked No	49c	124.86$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.19	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b1f…4eebbacked Yes	58c	119.99$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.59	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.20per pick	45cpaid	-50%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes	27c	112.83$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.46	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	30cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6fc…9d95backed Yes	58c	84.03$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.74	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked No	42c	83.4$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.37	55	16.4%9 W · 46 L	-3.1wins	-0.06per pick	22cpaid	-56%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1f7…2d3cbacked No	43c	57.95$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.03	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.16per pick	56cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes	39c	55.26$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.3	49	32.7%16 W · 33 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x935b…5c4bbacked Yes	58c	48.74$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.27	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+40.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes	68c	47.61$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.37	254	49.2%125 W · 129 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes	39c	41.02$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07dc…7457backed No	61c	40.02$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.61	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.22per pick	38cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4cb…a917backed Yes	58c	33.61$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x714e…2d11backed Yes	63c	32.51$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.42	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.24per pick	64cpaid	-44.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1334…34cabacked Yes	59c	30.85$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.05	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.5wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe239…14eabacked No	42c	26.29$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.25	26	69.2%18 W · 8 L	+3.9wins	+0.15per pick	54cpaid	+45.6%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5bc5…c64dbacked No	42c	24.13$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14	102	68.6%70 W · 32 L	+14.0wins	+0.14per pick	55cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Ludvig Aberg finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Augusta National Invitational?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event