Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x409685bb74583c55c41c27a7a383cc56f3f4d2f6de29c942ce3b486f4b8b80fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Spiritof Team Spirit, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb63…a71dbacked Team Spirit | 62c | 16,265$10,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,224.62 | 201 | 59.7%120 W · 81 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked MOUZ | 45c | 15,890$7,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,192.99 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed MOUZ | 0c | 4,560$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed Team Spirit | 54c | 2,044$1,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.89 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…f1bcbacked MOUZ | 12c | 1,733$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…5062backed Team Spirit | 47c | 1,281$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.28 | 213 | 46.5%99 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed MOUZ | 38c | 1,026$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.65 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4594…b1acbacked MOUZ | 23c | 1,003$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.64 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9767…b5c4backed MOUZ | 51c | 972.64$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 159 | 46.5%74 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Team Spirit | 54c | 952.28$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.28 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf457…d1a6backed Team Spirit | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.4 | 124 | 59.7%74 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed MOUZ | 44c | 890$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.5 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed MOUZ | 41c | 724$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.6 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x491d…f42bbacked Team Spirit | 72c | 685.25$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.37 | 396 | 60.1%238 W · 158 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ | 40c | 638.88$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.43 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Team Spirit | 53c | 600$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.46 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ | 41c | 599.8$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.58 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Spirit | 46c | 570.63$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.88 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked Team Spirit | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.45 | 538 | 44.4%239 W · 299 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a97…66f5backed Team Spirit | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.32 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…0c4bbacked MOUZ | 41c | 497.3$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.61 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…95fbbacked Team Spirit | 61c | 491.8$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.8 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0738…6392backed Team Spirit | 60c | 440.05$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.02 | 212 | 64.2%136 W · 76 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Team Spirit | 60c | 417.62$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.84 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe98e…a046backed MOUZ | 24c | 411.76$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.34 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…ed28backed Team Spirit | 52c | 405.99$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.79 | 605 | 52.6%318 W · 287 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed MOUZ | 51c | 378.36$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.84 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed MOUZ | 19c | 348.62$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Spirit | 55c | 339.28$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.47 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f8…0e1fbacked Team Spirit | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c34…2d7dbacked Team Spirit | 31c | 284.78$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.88 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Team Spirit | 52c | 228.68$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.37 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb6…546cbacked MOUZ | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Team Spirit | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd320…097ebacked MOUZ | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked MOUZ | 75c | 193.38$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.36 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d96…d524backed MOUZ | 41c | 185.37$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 269 | 57.6%155 W · 114 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Team Spirit | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Team Spirit | 55c | 181.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.4 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf459…7a53backed Team Spirit | 59c | 171.36$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.36 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…22f2backed Team Spirit | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc0…5f47backed Team Spirit | 55c | 160$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.4 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Team Spirit | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed MOUZ | 78c | 136.57$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.01 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda6…6ae0backed MOUZ | 47c | 132$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.82 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Team Spirit | 22c | 130.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.02 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Team Spirit | 51c | 130$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed MOUZ | 49c | 130$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…b8d2backed Team Spirit | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked MOUZ | 42c | 126.23$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.81 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9e…eb82backed Team Spirit | 55c | 123.69$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.63 | 203 | 49.8%101 W · 102 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…7392backed Team Spirit | 56c | 120$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 678 | 53.5%363 W · 315 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…0799backed Team Spirit | 64c | 116.45$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.23per pick | 59cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Team Spirit | 56c | 110$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…03cbbacked MOUZ | 48c | 103.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | -8.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed MOUZ | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaed5…4a71backed Team Spirit | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa7…003fbacked Team Spirit | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 450 | 52.4%236 W · 214 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6119…9ae6backed MOUZ | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Team Spirit | 60c | 74.92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x899e…0863backed Team Spirit | 43c | 69.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 264 | 54.5%144 W · 120 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed Team Spirit | 27c | 64.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.02 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4329…f54ebacked MOUZ | 25c | 60.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Team Spirit | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2608…34c1backed MOUZ | 55c | 59.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf82…6c06backed Team Spirit | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3873…dec8backed Team Spirit | 47c | 55.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07b0…4758backed MOUZ | 49c | 54.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed MOUZ | 57c | 52.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | -12.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…7e1fbacked MOUZ | 43c | 52.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -8.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Team Spirit | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1dadbacked Team Spirit | 35c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 226 | 54.4%123 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…3054backed Team Spirit | 58c | 49.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0aa…6818backed Team Spirit | 52c | 47.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x209f…0eb4backed Team Spirit | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed MOUZ | 46c | 39.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…355abacked Team Spirit | 55c | 29.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb59b…916bbacked Team Spirit | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae23…1bc4backed MOUZ | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ - Game 2 WinnerMOUZ won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.