Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40a35749a4c980ff36475f65b1099cd6a5bae5314de0ee04deb00a39dc8b1777
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 32c | 300.18$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.59 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 5c | 298.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 7c | 293.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 33c | 224.04$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.51 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 7c | 201.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3525…4964backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 7c | 180.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 68c | 178.69$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.56 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed Yes | 31c | 158.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 155.16$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.19 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 135.76$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 131.27$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.41 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 73c | 109$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 101.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…964cbacked Yes | 23c | 87.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…1af3backed Yes | 30c | 82.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 75.9$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f5…c4c9backed Yes | 30c | 72.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 62.53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 61.88$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed No | 75c | 54.04$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…ce5abacked Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 68c | 39.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 32c | 35.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 29c | 34.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 29.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa747…bebcbacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…9373backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 56 | 75%42 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…e5d4backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 22.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 68c | 22.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83f6…9ac8backed No | 72c | 22.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 68c | 15.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on July 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C or higher on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.