Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bacab7f1e0f045c494e714fac41380aa1d2e2b87e7e4f9b32e73425063a08ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,175
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,055
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,175 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 61c | 507.11$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.2 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 310.38$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.38 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 28c | 304$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.08 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 39c | 295.54$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.6 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 29c | 259.34$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.24 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 70c | 250.34$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.24 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 239.89$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.05 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 59c | 221.8$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.94 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked Yes | 79c | 207.05$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.53 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 76c | 178.55$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.9 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 28c | 177.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.35 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…68b0backed Yes | 39c | 177.6$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.3 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 73c | 157.16$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.62 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed Yes | 32c | 155.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.03 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 153.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.04 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 49c | 149.44$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.75 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 144.61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.32 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 136.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 29c | 121.26$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.67 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 69c | 115.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 59c | 107.42$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.86 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 79c | 103.76$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86f6…ad6dbacked Yes | 39c | 102.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.82 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 102$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.16 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438c…986bbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 99.15$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…964cbacked Yes | 19c | 93.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.23 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f5…c4c9backed Yes | 25c | 92.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.33 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 31c | 92.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.08 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 32c | 92.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee08…ca2ebacked Yes | 73c | 87.58$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 57c | 86.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 47c | 84.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.68 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 30c | 80.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.06 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc732…adefbacked No | 67c | 80$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 75.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.24 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 51c | 72.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 77c | 70.26$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 69c | 70$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed Yes | 66c | 69.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 48c | 66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 65.54$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…a5f9backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 60.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 59.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 77c | 53.43$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…1af3backed Yes | 26c | 52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 49.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 70c | 48.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 40c | 46.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 43.16$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 71c | 42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9eb…e3e8backed No | 78c | 41.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 88 | 71.6%63 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 55c | 41.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 34c | 40.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 78c | 40.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked Yes | 42c | 40.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 35c | 39.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 43c | 38.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 38c | 38.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 36c | 38.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 70c | 37.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa83b…6f57backed Yes | 41c | 36.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 41c | 36.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7d…63debacked No | 52c | 35.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 32c | 34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 59c | 32.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 48c | 29.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 29.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 70c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 27.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 59c | 26.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 26.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 41c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…cd9abacked Yes | 56c | 23.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecab…5b8ebacked Yes | 58c | 22.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 22.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 70c | 22.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 65c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed No | 71c | 18.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 75c | 16.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C or higher on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.