Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcd89d1269813401ee12209e1e22c0bbc1665394cc6bfa42b0fbc082dea39adc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,244
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,244 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed No | 52c | 2,047$1,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.57 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked No | 62c | 1,357$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.1 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 44c | 1,125$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.22 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc732…adefbacked Yes | 9c | 1,071$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.81 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 885.85$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.13 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 70c | 865.47$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.73 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 680.3$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.69 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 65c | 574.15$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.48 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 29c | 487.15$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.61 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 11c | 456.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 77c | 439.36$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.86 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 74c | 406.28$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.97 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86f6…ad6dbacked Yes | 72c | 390.25$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 30c | 315.94$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.55 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 36c | 311.48$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.44 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee08…ca2ebacked Yes | 49c | 307.01$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.36 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 79c | 304.66$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 69c | 288.69$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.83 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 48c | 283.34$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.35 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 44c | 279.11$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.32 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 19c | 260.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed Yes | 38c | 241.64$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.94 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 54c | 240.16$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.64 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 18c | 237$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecab…5b8ebacked Yes | 46c | 222.21$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.64 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…1af3backed Yes | 21c | 215.96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…f330backed Yes | 26c | 214.23$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3525…4964backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 23c | 195.44$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 20c | 190.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 16c | 189.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 80c | 180$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x579f…3803backed No | 74c | 170$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 53c | 161.42$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.34 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…964cbacked Yes | 10c | 158.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 156.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 50c | 149.43$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.47 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…3c43backed No | 29c | 147.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.43 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 19c | 143.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…733fbacked Yes | 46c | 141.43$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.51 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb17a…0f66backed Yes | 9c | 131.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 23c | 118.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed Yes | 78c | 110.06$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.23 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x438c…986bbacked Yes | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 42c | 109.82$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.49 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 38c | 107.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 61c | 99.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 40c | 98.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 60c | 94.76$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 25c | 92.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 75c | 90.56$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 74c | 89.93$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 15c | 88.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.56 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 70c | 88.44$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 51c | 85.4$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 83$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 22c | 76.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8354…6046backed Yes | 15c | 66.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 42c | 66.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…f22cbacked Yes | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 31c | 63.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 38c | 61.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64f8…eec6backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa94e…e152backed Yes | 36c | 56.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 19c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x034a…0469backed Yes | 54c | 52.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 50c | 50.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 30c | 49.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 51c | 48.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 34c | 48.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 27c | 47.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 39c | 43.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 34c | 42.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 27c | 41.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed No | 51c | 41.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 26c | 41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 70c | 39.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…a5f9backed Yes | 50c | 39.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 38c | 38.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1b42…876fbacked Yes | 36c | 37.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 28c | 37.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 79c | 37.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 50c | 34.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 66c | 33.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 44c | 32.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 31.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 65c | 30.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72c4…2181backed No | 50c | 30.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7d…63debacked Yes | 64c | 30.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 29.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 41c | 28.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 72c | 27.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 44c | 26.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5329…3e3dbacked Yes | 41c | 25.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on July 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C or higher on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.