Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40aa2da9b49a049f609f28335fccce4dbbb0e5a83522feedc3b44ff2e7e2e6eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,932
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 15c | 167.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 27c | 146.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 137.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 121.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 66c | 105.83$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 104.5$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 99.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 68c | 98.59$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd489…7f08backed No | 80c | 80.3$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 95 | 66.3%63 W · 32 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 80.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 27c | 70.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 70.11$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 19c | 69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 27c | 65.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked Yes | 21c | 49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 79c | 48.8$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 37c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 33c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 74c | 35.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 34.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 33c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 38c | 29.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 77c | 29.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 27.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…d575backed No | 67c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 94 | 70.2%66 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…a381backed No | 72c | 21.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…c9fdbacked No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 69c | 20.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 19.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fef…816bbacked No | 72c | 19.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…05a6backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 7°C or below on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.