TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,635
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,870

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,635 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ae0…7483backed Yes51c1,783$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$880.8810539%41 W · 64 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes56c666.32$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.6656543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes44c455.05$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.0565043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No48c323.66$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.742,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No55c251$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.13,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaac4…efa0backed Yes52c243.38$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.989038.9%35 W · 55 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No58c239.65$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.928,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes21c205.04$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.989,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No54c200$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10785049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf33c…488cbacked Yes51c195.92$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.9210244.1%45 W · 57 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes48c190.95$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No20c189.98$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.315236.2%55 W · 97 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes55c185.49$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.675546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No57c163.33$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.015,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No49c159.18$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.224,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed Yes51c158.88$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.8558152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No77c146.72$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.443,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f98…e397backed Yes49c140$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7133154.4%180 W · 151 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No50c120$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No70c112.67$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.8792678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No39c108$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.975,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes30c107.67$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.3787629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes35c106$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.821,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No48c104.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.365,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5675…f6a6backed No58c103.08$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.798458.3%49 W · 35 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cc7…6c9abacked Yes42c101.95$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.47647.4%36 W · 40 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcca3…7450backed Yes31c100$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.1142643.2%184 W · 242 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c33…38c9backed Yes49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.224732%79 W · 168 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes54c98$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.862,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No24c95.48$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.97,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes51c95.14$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.0957948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes72c94.74$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.836,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes52c89.63$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.029,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98ad…5f89backed No49c83.62$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.143655.6%20 W · 16 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+15.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No69c83.5$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.622,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No63c76.5$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.286949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No44c76.19$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.513,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No48c75$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.853,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed Yes50c75$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.533350.2%167 W · 166 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No36c73.47$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.226,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No44c71.36$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7294552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No61c69.81$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.684,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f4b…f9bfbacked Yes43c69.77$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.771520%3 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-57.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x39f3…74c9backed Yes22c65.77$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.31450%7 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked No79c65.39$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6649551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No67c60$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.044,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4680050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed Yes29c59.55$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.281,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No52c57.88$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No47c55$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.852,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No52c54.18$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.053,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes75c51.8$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1386952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb074…9fb3backed Yes33c51.73$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.6622454.5%122 W · 102 L+13.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xed4c…03cabacked No78c51.28$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403652.8%19 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x272e…6e99backed No62c51$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6216724.6%41 W · 126 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed Yes57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.590555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked Yes50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2548743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d8a…94cbbacked Yes51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.58949.4%44 W · 45 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes53c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.753,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2aa…f58dbacked Yes51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+62.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc196…4af6backed Yes57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.527056.7%153 W · 117 L-1.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9551…ca44backed No50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2515950.3%80 W · 79 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9387…d659backed Yes23c49.17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.8627130.6%83 W · 188 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes30c47.06$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.7459125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9631…a38cbacked Yes64c47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9249750.3%250 W · 247 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No79c46$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.341,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed No45c44.87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3734151.3%175 W · 166 L-26.9wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No38c41.52$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x29df…aeecbacked Yes48c41.39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5214043.6%61 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5219…7f31backed Yes49c41.39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1135344.5%157 W · 196 L-18.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No43c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.172,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x156b…5808backed Yes42c40$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.240535.6%144 W · 261 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes43c34.88$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8861249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No67c31.95$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.412,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f5…8fd4backed No44c30.4$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2710042%42 W · 58 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4125…868cbacked Yes46c29.88$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.148240.2%33 W · 49 L-7.1wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No56c29.69$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.621,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff32…7da9backed Yes52c28.3$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.586536.9%24 W · 41 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb53…fde7backed No48c27.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4925954.1%140 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c10…5269backed No57c26.31$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151637.5%6 W · 10 L-3.2wins-0.20per pick58cpaid-36.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes49c25.2$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.855,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbc2…97c4backed No52c22.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-45.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No59c22.26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.041,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcff7…2fb1backed Yes51c22$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7821451.9%111 W · 103 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9735…9b4ebacked Yes69c21.86$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.864961.2%30 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Yes51c21$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.49744.3%43 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No49c21$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2994066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No69c21$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.491,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6424…2718backed No63c20.21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7342754.6%233 W · 194 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe550…6f6ebacked No55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1114161.7%87 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes52c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.672,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50b1…0793backed No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1043663.5%277 W · 159 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa012…2af7backed No56c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.26061.7%37 W · 23 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No78c15.65$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.251,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x37df…f8b9backed No78c14.49$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.311958.8%70 W · 49 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid+1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0cd…259dbacked Yes77c12.94$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.93862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick58cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.