Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will AZ win on 2025-12-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40cb52de4892b644189ac571479fd378dd8df6d900ecf993c7b763180198aa38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,563
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x491c…8c7ebacked Yes | 5c | 8,430$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…a92dbacked Yes | 74c | 515.86$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.74 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf93…6e4fbacked No | 45c | 499.6$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 73c | 328.06$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.33 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a40…c93fbacked No | 26c | 241.86$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.98 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd89e…35fabacked No | 38c | 210$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed No | 52c | 207.68$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.28 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed No | 17c | 201.52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.51 | 69 | 71%49 W · 20 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 27c | 150$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.5 | 570 | 19.8%113 W · 457 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 27c | 118.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.41 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6636…bf37backed No | 25c | 118.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 27cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Yes | 68c | 117.32$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 64c | 103.19$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.39 | 212 | 56.6%120 W · 92 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c25…606ebacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +284.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc904…1e9abacked Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00af…626bbacked Yes | 65c | 90.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5254…891bbacked Yes | 59c | 80$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…d358backed Yes | 67c | 79.53$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.68 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…9762backed No | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…b20dbacked Yes | 65c | 57.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f77…724bbacked No | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed No | 26c | 56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 40c | 51.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 351 | 54.7%192 W · 159 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 24c | 45.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 151 | 62.3%94 W · 57 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed No | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Yes | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 230 | 61.3%141 W · 89 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedcd…f7cfbacked Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a11…de7cbacked Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf2…45bcbacked Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x586d…c5dcbacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd47…130ebacked Yes | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bed…6b26backed Yes | 76c | 14.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AZ win on 2025-12-14?this page
- Will AZ vs. SBV Excelsior end in a draw?Yes won
- Will SBV Excelsior win on 2025-12-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.