Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40ce35b9840444a35e242dda7f0a46612facc7da131146c1d29d13c01a563f90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,029 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3ec0…ae7dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,663$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 26c | 1,257$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 79c | 1,147$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.53 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 78c | 579.75$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.6 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 20c | 525$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 19c | 442.88$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.28 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 434.44$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 9c | 400$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 27c | 384.38$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.15 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 345.21$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.88 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 29c | 327.35$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.23 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 77c | 299.34$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.12 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 24c | 279.23$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.97 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 20c | 246.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 19c | 217.57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bd…fb6cbacked No | 76c | 198.85$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 73c | 185.31$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.46 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e8b7backed Yes | 18c | 184.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 25c | 173.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked No | 71c | 171.09$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.26 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes | 21c | 156.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 12c | 155.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 69c | 154.7$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.7 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 79c | 150.51$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 9c | 133.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 9c | 133.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 14c | 130$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 19c | 115$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fae…d2f1backed Yes | 25c | 112$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Yes | 22c | 111.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 21c | 111.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec0…251abacked Yes | 21c | 107.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 73c | 107$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes | 11c | 106.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed Yes | 23c | 104.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c44…f0ddbacked Yes | 17c | 103$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 15c | 101.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe091…0e5dbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 76c | 98$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 18c | 97.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9dc…264abacked Yes | 27c | 93.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed Yes | 21c | 92.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 89.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed Yes | 28c | 86.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 19c | 86.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…4518backed Yes | 23c | 85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 17c | 83.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 75.83$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 76c | 68.19$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 25c | 65.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 23c | 64.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5afb…92edbacked Yes | 23c | 63.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x242c…44d7backed Yes | 27c | 63.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed No | 79c | 62.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 24c | 61.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0da…2342backed No | 75c | 59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a8…cca8backed Yes | 27c | 52.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 28c | 49.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 72c | 48.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 59c | 48.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf166…fb37backed No | 79c | 42.61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd64…877cbacked No | 73c | 40.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 31c | 40.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0916…bfc8backed No | 75c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 78c | 35.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47d…fb65backed No | 74c | 29.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc293…c389backed No | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 38 | 86.8%33 W · 5 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 70cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…983abacked No | 71c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…f742backed No | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…036ebacked No | 75c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 80c | 19.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5a04…c277backed No | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 74c | 18.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8337…2827backed No | 77c | 17.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…b020backed No | 79c | 13.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 31°F or below on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on March 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.