Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on March 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d0d11e51ccf1bf5f773d26770dee06fcfc6f21df8909ee2322a36c26bc6a268
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,431
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,525
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,431 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 8c | 878.07$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 71c | 787.78$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.58 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 49c | 422.41$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.57 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 69c | 399.24$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.99 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 60c | 346.43$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.19 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…8939backed Yes | 55c | 321.52$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 57c | 312.2$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.91 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a0a4backed Yes | 52c | 290.99$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.24 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 70c | 282.02$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.89 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 28c | 265.97$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.31 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 44c | 256.29$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.85 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…9a02backed Yes | 45c | 223.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.41 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 46c | 223.2$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.04 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 55c | 200$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.95 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 59c | 200$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.22 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 9c | 199.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 52c | 196.02$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.67 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4165…da31backed Yes | 52c | 192.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.52 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 186.48$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bd…fb6cbacked No | 74c | 174.16$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.39 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 33c | 167.68$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.98 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 76c | 166.72$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.59 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 37c | 164.69$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…be0cbacked Yes | 50c | 162.59$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…78bebacked No | 28c | 138$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 17c | 124.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.28 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 38c | 120.6$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 75c | 108.57$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.03 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a84…e23abacked Yes | 47c | 105.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 29c | 104.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 54c | 87.79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 48c | 85.52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.14 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 51c | 85.4$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x242c…44d7backed Yes | 53c | 80.91$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 42c | 74.24$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 57c | 73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 65.04$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 38c | 64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.96 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2758…3176backed Yes | 40c | 63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 52c | 62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6810…c641backed Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 32c | 59.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed No | 54c | 58.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked No | 49c | 58.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 60c | 58.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4c…444cbacked No | 52c | 58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 38c | 57.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…fc88backed Yes | 35c | 57.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 78c | 54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 61c | 51.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1722…165abacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x953a…6646backed Yes | 41c | 49.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 46.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7a…e902backed Yes | 45c | 46.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf166…fb37backed No | 50c | 45.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…e037backed Yes | 34c | 44.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd05…0e6ebacked No | 49c | 44.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 32c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb000…e8fabacked No | 56c | 41.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20c5…7452backed Yes | 36c | 41.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…dfcebacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeae6…6dd3backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 62c | 39.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 55c | 38.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01fc…498abacked Yes | 40c | 37.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 74c | 36.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…ff4fbacked No | 66c | 36.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 66c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 76c | 34.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…983abacked Yes | 44c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc170…dfe9backed Yes | 50c | 33.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7395…9c80backed No | 61c | 31.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x687a…4e6bbacked Yes | 38c | 31.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765d…8189backed No | 51c | 31.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa74…3067backed Yes | 44c | 30.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 61c | 27.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfec0…251abacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dfe…f1d8backed No | 63c | 24.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -3.0wins | -0.42per pick | 71cpaid | -61%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a73…e6a8backed Yes | 58c | 22.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 66c | 22.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8337…2827backed No | 56c | 22.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed No | 72c | 19.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 78c | 18.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc97c…b49ebacked No | 80c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on March 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 31°F or below on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.