TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on March 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,763

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,763 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes21c849.23$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.8973927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No77c674.05$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.21,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes20c521.51$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.162,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No79c383.37$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.683,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2db…2263backed Yes33c345.17$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.2511126.1%29 W · 82 L-9.0wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-33.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes18c305.07$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.197,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes30c250$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.561,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked No75c240.43$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.0690040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes14c228.61$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x97eb…9fbebacked No68c212.58$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.6529922.7%68 W · 231 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-40.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes31c200$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6211533%38 W · 77 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes16c189.06$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4334319.5%67 W · 276 L+22.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes21c187.87$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9277428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e8b7backed Yes23c185.3$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.85117.6%9 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-55.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bd9…adc9backed Yes17c172.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No76c157.75$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1158349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff2a…1b56backed Yes21c150.31$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick13cpaid+268.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes8c142.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.071,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No75c139.99$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.761,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes22c136.85$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7254037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes20c130.8$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes11c129.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.31,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes20c125$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a84…e23abacked Yes18c118.93$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.451822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick27cpaid+33.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cde…476ebacked Yes30c110.71$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5916336.2%59 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes23c100.37$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7221440.2%86 W · 128 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6850…d921backed Yes18c95.94$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.78111.1%9 W · 72 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-56.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b3d…2c18backed No72c95$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.887065.7%46 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes15c94.39$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.412,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xadb6…636fbacked No79c93.21$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.671963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76a2…6651backed Yes14c92$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2514637.7%55 W · 91 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88b4…05babacked Yes34c91.17$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.951833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f2c…7810backed Yes16c88.44$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.13417.3%3 W · 38 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-52.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6987…846bbacked Yes23c85.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209040%36 W · 54 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa74…3067backed Yes20c83.64$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.73540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-28.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6c8…d7c5backed Yes23c83.32$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9424149.8%120 W · 121 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes14c80.02$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.277,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed No79c78.6$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.499949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes26c78$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5855942.6%238 W · 321 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a3a…fc88backed Yes27c74.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203633.3%12 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce8d…7a59backed Yes14c73.81$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ab8…0397backed Yes19c71.78$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.815644.6%25 W · 31 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b4e…d839backed Yes22c69.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2822728.6%65 W · 162 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x060c…9352backed Yes23c65.21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159133%30 W · 61 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes20c62$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6433232.8%109 W · 223 L+18.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc5d2…e592backed Yes25c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-51.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes19c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.271,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No75c60$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.051,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe9a2…27a0backed Yes17c59.32$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103534.3%12 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-46.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed No72c58.31$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3643238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1927…9649backed Yes28c54.13$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153040%12 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20c5…7452backed Yes20c53.89$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.91010%1 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-72.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2061…c872backed Yes22c53.73$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.681118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x541e…54debacked Yes21c47.62$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xebee…7f68backed Yes28c46.65$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.29529.5%28 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2e6…c602backed Yes34c45.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.43452.9%18 W · 16 L+5.0wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes24c44.96$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.945,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes24c43.38$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.491,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee2a…729bbacked No77c43.36$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7710426%27 W · 77 L-0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf166…fb37backed No73c42.61$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.48666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7690…dfcebacked Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+28.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcce6…77d1backed No76c35.58$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.549139.6%36 W · 55 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked No71c35.22$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2259440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe62a…8fe4backed No77c31.31$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No64c29.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.872466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x13f3…d427backed No70c28.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.432669%225 W · 101 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf82c…2580backed No78c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.51060%6 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No80c22.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.681,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No75c21.68$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4281756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23f5…2991backed No76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x938b…e32bbacked No79c19.59$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.112100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+97.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd8a…edf9backed No73c19.41$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.247638.2%29 W · 47 L-8.0wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-14.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1cb2…14d6backed No76c19$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.567754.5%42 W · 35 L-8.6wins-0.11per pick66cpaid-24.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbc29…b3b6backed No78c17.79$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.918252.4%43 W · 39 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xae54…70edbacked No70c17.14$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.14250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8638…2d36backed No74c16.89$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.3912954.3%70 W · 59 L-7.2wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x298e…107ebacked No71c16.73$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.8526169.3%181 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41d0…a837backed No70c14.9$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.475962.7%37 W · 22 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick68cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed No76c14.42$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.4624932.9%82 W · 167 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-32.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x11c5…70e3backed No80c13.51$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.79162.6%57 W · 34 L+10.5wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+32.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.