Tennis · resolved market
Quebec City: Jacob Fearnley vs Mackenzie McDonald
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40ec4aba0cc04a62ac4d489135ea3886ced3231ea24478e337444b57b101a806
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jacob Fearnleyof Jacob Fearnley, Mackenzie McDonald
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,130
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,130 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Mackenzie McDonald | 4c | 5,879$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.92 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Mackenzie McDonald | 4c | 4,534$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.34 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Mackenzie McDonald | 16c | 3,934$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.02 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Jacob Fearnley | 79c | 2,915$2,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.93 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Mackenzie McDonald | 17c | 2,476$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.73 | 1,042 | 36.5%380 W · 662 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Mackenzie McDonald | 13c | 2,067$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.79 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Jacob Fearnley | 74c | 792.32$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.71 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d3…8a20backed Jacob Fearnley | 80c | 627.75$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.55 | 98 | 65.3%64 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Mackenzie McDonald | 39c | 612$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.44 | 883 | 58.2%514 W · 369 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Mackenzie McDonald | 38c | 579.84$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.34 | 1,624 | 49.8%809 W · 815 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed Mackenzie McDonald | 6c | 510$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 301 | 32.9%99 W · 202 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Mackenzie McDonald | 20c | 509.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.86 | 788 | 38.2%301 W · 487 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91b6…4b40backed Mackenzie McDonald | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 306 | 25.8%79 W · 227 L | -28.6wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…7dfbbacked Mackenzie McDonald | 4c | 450$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 87 | 10.3%9 W · 78 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb2…1bfcbacked Mackenzie McDonald | 30c | 444.03$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.67 | 280 | 55.4%155 W · 125 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Mackenzie McDonald | 14c | 397.75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.05 | 1,435 | 24.3%348 W · 1,087 L | -36.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…b694backed Mackenzie McDonald | 23c | 344.48$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 1,429 | 44.2%631 W · 798 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Jacob Fearnley | 75c | 245.08$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.48 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7738…5dbdbacked Jacob Fearnley | 74c | 220.7$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.38 | 479 | 56.6%271 W · 208 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0e…1cebbacked Mackenzie McDonald | 25c | 201.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 209 | 39.7%83 W · 126 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Mackenzie McDonald | 14c | 197.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 1,308 | 38.9%509 W · 799 L | -23.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Jacob Fearnley | 73c | 178.34$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Jacob Fearnley | 79c | 159.29$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Mackenzie McDonald | 25c | 159.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.43 | 736 | 48.1%354 W · 382 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Jacob Fearnley | 74c | 155.46$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed Jacob Fearnley | 66c | 152.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 470 | 58.5%275 W · 195 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc02…ce2abacked Jacob Fearnley | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 215 | 72.6%156 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Jacob Fearnley | 78c | 128$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Mackenzie McDonald | 24c | 116.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab37…7b61backed Jacob Fearnley | 80c | 101.66$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 66 | 68.2%45 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36cf…d3aebacked Jacob Fearnley | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.16 | 449 | 46.1%207 W · 242 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed Mackenzie McDonald | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Mackenzie McDonald | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaa…28f7backed Mackenzie McDonald | 37c | 99.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 939 | 45.5%427 W · 512 L | +20.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Jacob Fearnley | 73c | 87$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571f…1d37backed Mackenzie McDonald | 28c | 81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 1,065 | 54.7%583 W · 482 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b9…a814backed Mackenzie McDonald | 19c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 369 | 46.9%173 W · 196 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a11…9becbacked Mackenzie McDonald | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4abd…5a5cbacked Mackenzie McDonald | 32c | 61.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 391 | 59.1%231 W · 160 L | +28.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed Jacob Fearnley | 73c | 61.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 455 | 66.4%302 W · 153 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Mackenzie McDonald | 32c | 61.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 1,421 | 55%782 W · 639 L | +23.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd072…95e8backed Jacob Fearnley | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 248 | 51.2%127 W · 121 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeedc…d4c0backed Jacob Fearnley | 61c | 53.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 148 | 70.3%104 W · 44 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Mackenzie McDonald | 38c | 52.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8558…8615backed Mackenzie McDonald | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 311 | 64.3%200 W · 111 L | +36.4wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Mackenzie McDonald | 36c | 48.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Jacob Fearnley | 80c | 47.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Mackenzie McDonald | 31c | 46.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 142 | 45.1%64 W · 78 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Mackenzie McDonald | 39c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 695 | 45.8%318 W · 377 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Jacob Fearnley | 65c | 41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 1,959 | 43.7%857 W · 1,102 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…667dbacked Jacob Fearnley | 78c | 40.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 234 | 68.8%161 W · 73 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…b795backed Jacob Fearnley | 73c | 40.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 541 | 41.4%224 W · 317 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Jacob Fearnley | 61c | 36.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 852 | 50%426 W · 426 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a51…1e9fbacked Mackenzie McDonald | 38c | 31.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 218 | 42.2%92 W · 126 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071f…92bdbacked Jacob Fearnley | 62c | 24.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 1,076 | 73.8%794 W · 282 L | +41.1wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59ae…ffb1backed Jacob Fearnley | 63c | 19.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 112 | 61.6%69 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.