Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x411effa78ce0a275f098c5e2851d20663a517d76213e381b82f7f0dc70940f2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Paper Rexof T1, Paper Rex
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe4da…1772backed T1 | 40c | 2,805$1,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,133.17 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Paper Rex | 72c | 2,428$1,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.96 | 888 | 44.4%394 W · 494 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3234…8b1abacked Paper Rex | 61c | 1,863$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.82 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…e406backed T1 | 54c | 1,275$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.26 | 547 | 51.2%280 W · 267 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked T1 | 51c | 1,044$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.73 | 1,309 | 43.8%573 W · 736 L | -44.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Paper Rex | 58c | 972.42$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.42 | 931 | 48.1%448 W · 483 L | -11.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked T1 | 39c | 852.56$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.45 | 1,608 | 45.2%727 W · 881 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Paper Rex | 53c | 742.55$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.85 | 257 | 52.1%134 W · 123 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe843…0699backed Paper Rex | 44c | 615.93$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.98 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3351…4e2dbacked T1 | 45c | 609.29$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.18 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed T1 | 38c | 566.31$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.85 | 418 | 35.6%149 W · 269 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94f1…b9e7backed T1 | 46c | 539.99$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.2 | 321 | 52.6%169 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…2c23backed Paper Rex | 56c | 538.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.71 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbf…c53cbacked Paper Rex | 60c | 516.87$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.87 | 32 | 81.3%26 W · 6 L | +8.0wins | +0.25per pick | 56cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9106…613bbacked Paper Rex | 65c | 507.16$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.39 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed T1 | 44c | 479.73$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked T1 | 40c | 460.38$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.15 | 248 | 46%114 W · 134 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5501…fe9abacked T1 | 42c | 419.86$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.52 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked T1 | 30c | 365.04$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.44 | 1,601 | 37.5%600 W · 1,001 L | -75.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Paper Rex | 43c | 352.28$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.85 | 1,746 | 46.2%806 W · 940 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0096…2a83backed T1 | 65c | 302.7$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.66 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96f1…b6d8backed T1 | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 146 | 61.6%90 W · 56 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f0…7b5bbacked Paper Rex | 43c | 300$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…0b04backed Paper Rex | 54c | 295.99$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.15 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…8fd0backed Paper Rex | 68c | 295$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeebb…0b96backed T1 | 45c | 288.89$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1aee…8796backed Paper Rex | 69c | 283.52$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.55 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Paper Rex | 55c | 276.47$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.18 | 452 | 50%226 W · 226 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…c25fbacked T1 | 46c | 254.48$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.06 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Paper Rex | 42c | 240$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.2 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed T1 | 41c | 230.2$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.41 | 1,490 | 46.6%695 W · 795 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf708…3ac9backed T1 | 42c | 230$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.85 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed T1 | 43c | 182$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.42 | 998 | 46%459 W · 539 L | -27.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa5…ff32backed T1 | 46c | 180$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 208 | 40.9%85 W · 123 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked T1 | 56c | 178$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.68 | 1,376 | 47.1%648 W · 728 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Paper Rex | 54c | 165.15$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.6 | 409 | 44.3%181 W · 228 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8d…24dfbacked T1 | 62c | 155.48$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.63 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +5.9wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed T1 | 19c | 151.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 1,276 | 32.1%409 W · 867 L | -67.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…dcc7backed T1 | 44c | 148.61$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.39 | 159 | 31.4%50 W · 109 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed T1 | 29c | 145.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 264 | 36%95 W · 169 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3252…1d21backed Paper Rex | 44c | 140$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9734…bfd8backed Paper Rex | 71c | 138.12$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.98 | 192 | 57.8%111 W · 81 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Paper Rex | 58c | 127$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.87 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x561d…94bebacked Paper Rex | 69c | 123.72$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…e505backed T1 | 47c | 105.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 71 | 64.8%46 W · 25 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe881…fb3dbacked Paper Rex | 53c | 103.36$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.58 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed31…d9c8backed T1 | 37c | 99.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 160 | 33.8%54 W · 106 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed T1 | 39c | 93.22$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 779 | 29.5%230 W · 549 L | -72.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…12ebbacked T1 | 44c | 93.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 212 | 40.1%85 W · 127 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Paper Rex | 54c | 90$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7a…52c9backed T1 | 46c | 78.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -6.2wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x65eb…e197backed T1 | 49c | 78.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f48…0b0dbacked Paper Rex | 68c | 75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 184 | 57.1%105 W · 79 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6f…7248backed Paper Rex | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9b…2013backed Paper Rex | 55c | 55.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 187 | 35.3%66 W · 121 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc566…f8d7backed T1 | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 147 | 37.4%55 W · 92 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe252…2071backed Paper Rex | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed T1 | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 443 | 42%186 W · 257 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0181…9b5fbacked Paper Rex | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 278 | 50%139 W · 139 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510e…b8e0backed Paper Rex | 64c | 48.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d43…43a7backed Paper Rex | 67c | 44.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.24per pick | 48cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcead…afeabacked T1 | 67c | 44.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…ba12backed Paper Rex | 64c | 43.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1791…3e87backed T1 | 40c | 38.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Paper Rex | 35c | 37.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bee…e55cbacked Paper Rex | 75c | 37.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 182 | 61%111 W · 71 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked T1 | 28c | 36.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 204 | 39.2%80 W · 124 L | -18.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…8d0fbacked Paper Rex | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…cca4backed T1 | 53c | 34.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc161…bd88backed Paper Rex | 54c | 31.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf8…5facbacked Paper Rex | 57c | 31.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed Paper Rex | 35c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 278 | 47.1%131 W · 147 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80ce…0f13backed Paper Rex | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c1…d9febacked Paper Rex | 66c | 26.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa584…01aabacked Paper Rex | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7065…f73cbacked T1 | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3317…166abacked Paper Rex | 73c | 21.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c9…c678backed Paper Rex | 53c | 20.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde2a…6bfebacked T1 | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Paper Rex | 56c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 347 | 39.8%138 W · 209 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fc…a448backed T1 | 67c | 15.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5)T1 won
- Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Pacific PlayoffsPaper Rex won
- Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex - Map 2 WinnerT1 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.