MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4170b61197aa732b35f18596fd5bd84af3aa18d48eb02b3f81a65fe0f644f29c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Tampa Bay Rays, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,240
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,240 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago White Sox | 71c | 12,900$9,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,742.98 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 29c | 9,944$2,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,842.49 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 28c | 1,573$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.44 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Tampa Bay Rays | 20c | 578.82$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.41 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Chicago White Sox | 68c | 532.94$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.72 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago White Sox | 69c | 524.96$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.39 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 29c | 502.07$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.69 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Tampa Bay Rays | 30c | 399$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.7 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Tampa Bay Rays | 32c | 360.29$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.83 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Chicago White Sox | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago White Sox | 71c | 257.48$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.44 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Tampa Bay Rays | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Tampa Bay Rays | 28c | 102.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Tampa Bay Rays | 30c | 89.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Tampa Bay Rays | 27c | 80.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Tampa Bay Rays | 29c | 35.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 30c | 33.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Chicago White Sox | 71c | 27.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Chicago White Sox | 67c | 26.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Chicago White Sox | 70c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Chicago White Sox | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.