MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a933bec1e6bb3354f22e59bd8d957f9ec7a9d4e2b678b50623ec99d2a1b1b39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 44c | 6,400$2,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,848 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 55c | 6,145$3,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,736.71 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 47c | 4,367$2,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,052.49 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 57c | 4,230$2,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,818.9 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 44c | 3,409$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Over | 45c | 3,182$1,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,431.77 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 59c | 2,093$1,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.89 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Under | 58c | 2,079$1,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.99 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Under | 58c | 2,079$1,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.99 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 42c | 2,023$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.76 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 55c | 1,642$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.07 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 58c | 1,086$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.99 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 54c | 1,085$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.1 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 44c | 1,042$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.15 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 39c | 1,014$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.35 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 54c | 1,001$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.57 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 59c | 990.68$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.18 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 53c | 984.06$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.51 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under | 54c | 919.85$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.13 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 18c | 801.71$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.3 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 43c | 604.61$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.42 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 42c | 525$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.5 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 500$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.5 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed Over | 42c | 499.99$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 42c | 379$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.18 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 59c | 262.71$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.71 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 58c | 258.63$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.62 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 19c | 240$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…5465backed Under | 54c | 204.48$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.06 | 99 | 56.6%56 W · 43 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Over | 19c | 190$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Under | 58c | 155.16$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.17 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 59c | 150$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 54c | 141.65$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.28 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed Under | 58c | 137.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 163 | 55.8%91 W · 72 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Over | 42c | 137$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.54 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f45…e6a7backed Under | 58c | 129.31$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe707…e0cfbacked Under | 58c | 119.48$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.18 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 58c | 103.41$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.43 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Over | 45c | 98.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Over | 42c | 98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.01 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 42c | 97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 42c | 89.47$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 80 | 32.5%26 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Under | 58c | 77.58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 42c | 74.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba2c…fddabacked Over | 45c | 64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Over | 42c | 58.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 54c | 54.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Under | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 44c | 45.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 731 | 43.4%317 W · 414 L | -15.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 43c | 44.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba71…1209backed Under | 58c | 41.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 59c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Under | 57c | 19.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.