MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabc95e9fa53264e97851264f6bde35140efcbc3e38b55383186d7bdad03ff289
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,028
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,847
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,028 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 50c | 20,420$10,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,209.87 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 52c | 13,628$7,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,525.97 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…5030backed Over | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,800 | 362 | 46.1%167 W · 195 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 46c | 6,684$3,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,092.66 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Over | 50c | 4,904$2,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,452 | 208 | 45.2%94 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 48c | 2,460$1,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,279.04 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 2,437$1,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,184.63 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 52c | 2,237$1,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,163.32 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 48c | 2,001$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.48 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 1,800$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.99 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 54c | 1,790$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.55 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 55c | 1,423$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.65 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 55c | 1,359$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.45 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 52c | 1,309$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.13 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Over | 53c | 1,200$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.99 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 50c | 1,197$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.14 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 18c | 1,104$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.89 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 45c | 959.73$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.15 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Under | 52c | 800$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 49c | 778$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.01 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 51c | 749.98$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.99 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…4fadbacked Under | 75c | 600$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +7.8wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 56c | 523.11$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.96 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Over | 55c | 454$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.7 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 49c | 444$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.44 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2185…b40cbacked Over | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 262 | 55.7%146 W · 116 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 50c | 390$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…e183backed Over | 52c | 342.31$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 49c | 327.8$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.62 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 48c | 312.39$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.15 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 50c | 295$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.5 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…5465backed Under | 46c | 292.61$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.01 | 99 | 56.6%56 W · 43 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Under | 70c | 214.29$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 115 | 60.9%70 W · 45 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 49c | 191$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.59 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 57c | 180$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f45…e6a7backed Under | 51c | 147.05$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.05 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 19c | 147$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba2c…fddabacked Over | 50c | 127.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.64 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…1306backed Over | 52c | 101.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 232 | 55.2%128 W · 104 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 75c | 97.64$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Over | 43c | 96.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x841f…ad4bbacked Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 49c | 85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 51c | 80.46$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.32 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 25c | 79.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 21c | 59.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 19c | 54.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5c…0fc2backed Over | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9c…0f59backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 36c | 45.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf985…d744backed Over | 50c | 44.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Under | 50c | 41.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Under | 50c | 41.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ff…7b20backed Over | 50c | 39.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Over | 53c | 36.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 55c | 34.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 45c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1f…1e14backed Under | 52c | 31.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…c664backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | -46.7wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x472e…f338backed Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…7ce5backed Over | 49c | 23.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 121 | 40.5%49 W · 72 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.