Ligue 1 · resolved market
Racing Club de Lens vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x419a0844e29c7e0b3cf871a7b4cd21dcb4b0438cd4175ba4728c8b23fd0cbd9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,070
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 24c | 2,214$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.54 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed Under | 79c | 1,270$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.74 | 84 | 35.7%30 W · 54 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 76c | 1,234$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.5 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4457…f3e2backed Over | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 27c | 802.62$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.29 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Under | 77c | 650$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.5 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…85bbbacked Under | 72c | 416.8$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2e…9e01backed Over | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1d…820cbacked Under | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.25per pick | 67cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed Over | 34c | 373.53$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa237…d59abacked Under | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 22c | 272.72$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 72c | 209.9$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.59 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +6.7wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Over | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 38c | 157.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 87 | 29.9%26 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 41c | 114$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 39c | 112.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 75c | 112$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed Under | 77c | 90.88$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e6…a6edbacked Under | 64c | 82.38$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…0262backed Over | 27c | 72.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 58c | 69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Over | 25c | 66.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 71c | 65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Under | 79c | 64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cb…4593backed Under | 72c | 61.47$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 71c | 57.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 183 | 60.7%111 W · 72 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 21c | 55.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 229 | 27.5%63 W · 166 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 26c | 39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 162 | 42%68 W · 94 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 44c | 36.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb752…aea9backed Under | 75c | 31.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1741…6f97backed Under | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…ffd7backed Under | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 63c | 27.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Under | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8f…386cbacked Under | 75c | 21.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Under | 80c | 20.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1217…690abacked Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Racing Club de Lens vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 4.5this page
- Racing Club de Lens vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Racing Club de Lens vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 1.5Over won
- Racing Club de Lens vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 2.5Over won
- Racing Club de Lens vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.