Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41c400e9cf920b6aac1035b8a72dbbecc759b0a66f16e319467ac3a1d982ba92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,207
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,207 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 255.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 31c | 225.19$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.16 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 216.04$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.74 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 6c | 210.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x051a…7c45backed No | 71c | 187.39$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.87 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 53c | 186.76$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.98 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 158.57$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.01 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 58c | 138.9$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.67 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 32c | 134.39$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.89 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 41c | 111.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.98 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd417…9438backed No | 78c | 99.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 28c | 85.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.63 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 68c | 83.84$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 77$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 25c | 76.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 74.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 73.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.61 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 75c | 67.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 55c | 65.7$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 27c | 64.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.83 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 25c | 63.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 25c | 62.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.77 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 49c | 60.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 52c | 58.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed Yes | 29c | 54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 30c | 53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed Yes | 52c | 46.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 46.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 43.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 39.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…4972backed Yes | 38c | 36.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 74c | 35.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 60c | 34.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…93f1backed No | 72c | 33.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 31.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 33c | 29.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f77…4b79backed Yes | 39c | 29.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 70c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 75c | 27.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 75c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 67c | 25.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…02a8backed Yes | 77c | 20.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 77c | 20.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 69c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 77c | 17.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 72c | 15.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.