Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bb5a1354162edb322c879e34a6dd8e189ed2a84bc07a54743df0ec5b14c5f95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,976
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,976 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 413.37$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.81 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 65c | 284.83$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.75 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed Yes | 32c | 230.36$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 42c | 208.02$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f0…186cbacked Yes | 46c | 196.44$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 11c | 186.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 43c | 175.86$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.25 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 56c | 162.61$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.9 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 45c | 151.61$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.71 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…93f1backed No | 60c | 151.11$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.53 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 28c | 146.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 42c | 136.2$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f77…4b79backed Yes | 41c | 112.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.93 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 64c | 103.61$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 60c | 99.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.98 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 55c | 87.4$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 38c | 83.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6664…1891backed No | 65c | 76.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 75.93$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 37c | 75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 44c | 74.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 56.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 57c | 54.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 30c | 53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…4972backed Yes | 40c | 52.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 67c | 52.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 39c | 50.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae8…d952backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 54c | 49.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed Yes | 47c | 48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 46.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed Yes | 36c | 46.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -16.9wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 59c | 46.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 37c | 45.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 37c | 43.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcca2…fa31backed Yes | 36c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 41.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b42…14f4backed Yes | 47c | 40.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 40.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 53c | 39.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 43c | 32.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 60c | 32.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 51c | 32.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 58c | 30.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 60c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 48c | 28.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 53c | 24.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed Yes | 49c | 22.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 50c | 20.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe02d…bcffbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe453…06b0backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.