Champions League · resolved market
Will SSC Napoli vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4222090fb3312c2ff5ae465b2495099842b0d07771a9f197c00c94b91d31ced0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 25c | 9,220$2,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,319.25 | 2,025 | 43.7%884 W · 1,141 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 73c | 5,540$4,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,495.86 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 73c | 3,838$2,812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.95 | 582 | 48.8%284 W · 298 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 71c | 1,500$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.3 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 15c | 1,500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 243 | 27.2%66 W · 177 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 14c | 1,281$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.35 | 190 | 28.9%55 W · 135 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fa…ad31backed Yes | 16c | 1,039$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2011…f296backed Yes | 16c | 800$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Yes | 36c | 611.1$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 18c | 372$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.86 | 389 | 35.2%137 W · 252 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Yes | 17c | 355$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.35 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +158%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes | 29c | 348$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.92 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 15c | 338.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5699…418dbacked Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 7c | 294.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 1,543 | 40.1%618 W · 925 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa097…fba7backed Yes | 28c | 250$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 460 | 48.5%223 W · 237 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 375 | 44%165 W · 210 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 79 | 24.1%19 W · 60 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d65…7d4abacked Yes | 34c | 163.46$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe848…7348backed Yes | 17c | 153.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc64f…3577backed Yes | 17c | 143.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b4…2df7backed Yes | 15c | 135$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…910abacked Yes | 40c | 128.43$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.37 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…ce17backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…6ba8backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc4…306fbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7982…86c4backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6df8…5332backed Yes | 28c | 74.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 15c | 67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 397 | 46.9%186 W · 211 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…269dbacked Yes | 28c | 65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 72c | 64.3$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -9.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -50%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2c…e2fdbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa414…d03dbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecb7…7998backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Yes | 25c | 58.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…dd6bbacked No | 79c | 17.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 76cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SSC Napoli vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK end in a draw?this page
- Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2025-11-25?No won
- Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.