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South American Leagues · resolved market

Spread: Club Nacional de Football (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
CA Tigreof Club Nacional de Football, CA Tigre
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,417
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,750

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,417 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe911…3d4ebacked Club Nacional de Football40c154.74$62 inLost-$61.691,53745.2%695 W · 842 L+21.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4bc…67c2backed Club Nacional de Football65c100.48$65 inLost-$65.273339.4%13 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-31.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbb7…0acebacked Club Nacional de Football29c100$29 inLost-$292951.7%15 W · 14 L+3.5wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+22.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Club Nacional de Football21c81$17 inLost-$16.7589846.1%414 W · 484 L-11.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cfd…3d84backed CA Tigre37c64.68$24 inWon+$40.6812535.2%44 W · 81 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Club Nacional de Football46c38$17 inLost-$17.31,25356.2%704 W · 549 L+73.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked Club Nacional de Football63c37.68$24 inLost-$23.5618446.2%85 W · 99 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked CA Tigre53c30$16 inWon+$14.115143%65 W · 86 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Club Nacional de Football62c24$15 inLost-$14.8819150.3%96 W · 95 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed CA Tigre77c23.06$18 inWon+$5.345946.8%215 W · 244 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc23d…82c8backed Club Nacional de Football60c18.7$11 inLost-$11.2730048%144 W · 156 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.