MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42755eb9789232273933743c1856ac66a9ae537f553f859a4a1c58ed8d8ed646
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,591
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,591 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 48c | 10,036$4,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,866.71 | 11,054 | 51.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L | +137.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 51c | 9,251$4,718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,532.56 | 6,128 | 55.4%3,394 W · 2,734 L | +347.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 43c | 5,806$2,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500.72 | 11,606 | 52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L | +210.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c23…ed23backed Under | 59c | 3,331$1,965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,365.56 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 55c | 1,293$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.24 | 1,045 | 52%543 W · 502 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 79c | 1,266$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.82 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 55c | 998$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.1 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 47c | 894.76$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.1 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 33c | 866.32$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.95 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 53c | 754.71$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.71 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Under | 55c | 600.38$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.1 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 21c | 586.11$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.2 | 8,451 | 47.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L | +81.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 44c | 539.69$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.27 | 9,862 | 46.4%4,579 W · 5,283 L | +40.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…68f7backed Under | 52c | 489.46$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.94 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 55c | 422.75$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.22 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 23c | 413.17$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.77 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Over | 41c | 384$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.44 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…4b61backed Under | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 77c | 122$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 8,654 | 52.6%4,550 W · 4,104 L | +506.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 55c | 98.03$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.11 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 16c | 87.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 5,848 | 43.7%2,556 W · 3,292 L | -189.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9947…925dbacked Over | 38c | 66.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…f09abacked Under | 55c | 63.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…338abacked Under | 74c | 59.09$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdda1…7b5ebacked Under | 55c | 52.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Under | 51c | 48.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 49c | 46.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 74c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 209 | 62.7%131 W · 78 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…e155backed Under | 55c | 42.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 42c | 42.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 4,524 | 48.9%2,214 W · 2,310 L | -42.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…d1cabacked Under | 55c | 34.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 54c | 33.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 43c | 28.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 6,309 | 48.2%3,044 W · 3,265 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed Under | 55c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Under | 54c | 27.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x449e…f0a9backed Under | 55c | 26.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 53c | 24.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 2,593 | 61.5%1,595 W · 998 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Under | 73c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 162 | 74.1%120 W · 42 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cb…3636backed Under | 55c | 21.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 84 | 60.7%51 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…bbf6backed Under | 78c | 20.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Under | 54c | 18.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58da…6a8cbacked Under | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2259…6a52backed Under | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed Under | 74c | 14.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9685…634fbacked Under | 73c | 13.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 4.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-5.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-6.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-4.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.