TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Chicago White Sox (-5.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Minnesota Twinsof Chicago White Sox, Minnesota Twins
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,991
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,947

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,991 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7634…600dbacked Chicago White Sox62c4,000$2,480 inLost-$2,48060350.1%302 W · 301 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Minnesota Twins38c3,126$1,189 inWon+$1,937.796,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins52c716.03$376 inWon+$340.3412,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Chicago White Sox58c517.24$299 inLost-$299.282,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Minnesota Twins43c440.99$190 inWon+$251.371,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Minnesota Twins45c429.67$193 inWon+$236.321,03851.7%537 W · 501 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Twins66c411.26$271 inWon+$140.5611,35652.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L+209.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Chicago White Sox57c291.16$166 inLost-$165.962,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5be3…1a5bbacked Chicago White Sox38c170.64$65 inLost-$65333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Minnesota Twins38c154.05$59 inWon+$95.5159549.7%296 W · 299 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89d1…55b8backed Chicago White Sox32c81$26 inLost-$25.926457.8%37 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc51…674abacked Chicago White Sox49c43.15$21 inLost-$21.19752.6%51 W · 46 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c16…66cebacked Chicago White Sox62c41.65$26 inLost-$25.8266056.2%371 W · 289 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Chicago White Sox45c41.6$19 inLost-$18.7243954.7%240 W · 199 L+30.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Chicago White Sox59c40.22$24 inLost-$23.732,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Minnesota Twins41c35.23$14 inWon+$20.781,21855.6%677 W · 541 L+94.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc45a…1565backed Minnesota Twins62c34.78$22 inWon+$13.229851%50 W · 48 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Minnesota Twins49c30.93$15 inWon+$15.7272655.4%402 W · 324 L+40.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Chicago White Sox57c28.74$16 inLost-$16.381,13357.2%648 W · 485 L+35.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde1b…5710backed Chicago White Sox57c25.96$15 inLost-$14.810145.5%46 W · 55 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Minnesota Twins77c22.53$17 inWon+$5.128,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd030…f3f0backed Chicago White Sox56c20.93$12 inLost-$11.7211946.2%55 W · 64 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.