MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3eda83d016cd8b6992443f6e49bcaa4d0c7edeba3dece4cf97359d5c9407aa2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Chicago White Sox, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Twins | 68c | 21,208$14,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,410.42 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Chicago White Sox | 32c | 10,643$3,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,243.76 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Chicago White Sox | 32c | 10,476$3,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,076.63 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Minnesota Twins | 68c | 9,457$6,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,472.02 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Chicago White Sox | 32c | 9,332$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,332.17 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Chicago White Sox | 32c | 8,700$2,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,916 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Minnesota Twins | 67c | 7,934$5,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,315.79 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago White Sox | 29c | 5,188$1,526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,662.29 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Chicago White Sox | 33c | 3,020$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,032.3 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Minnesota Twins | 70c | 2,321$1,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,624.43 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Minnesota Twins | 69c | 2,000$1,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,387.75 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Minnesota Twins | 69c | 1,387$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.73 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Minnesota Twins | 68c | 999.99$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.99 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Minnesota Twins | 68c | 923.52$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.59 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Minnesota Twins | 17c | 796.59$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.42 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Minnesota Twins | 51c | 788$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 347 | 56.5%196 W · 151 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8f…9166backed Minnesota Twins | 19c | 523.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Chicago White Sox | 31c | 498.73$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.13 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Minnesota Twins | 69c | 447.11$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.51 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Minnesota Twins | 67c | 350.14$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.6 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago White Sox | 68c | 283.17$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.45 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Minnesota Twins | 70c | 195$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.85 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc754…b388backed Chicago White Sox | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Minnesota Twins | 72c | 145.18$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Minnesota Twins | 75c | 130$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Chicago White Sox | 33c | 126.18$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.54 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Chicago White Sox | 27c | 103.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.13 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…d420backed Chicago White Sox | 32c | 79.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.75 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Chicago White Sox | 37c | 78.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.71 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4efc…2d8dbacked Chicago White Sox | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Chicago White Sox | 26c | 77.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.32 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Minnesota Twins | 19c | 66.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Minnesota Twins | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x729e…a820backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 58.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Minnesota Twins | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b9…2592backed Chicago White Sox | 32c | 47.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…8de4backed Chicago White Sox | 32c | 41.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 185 | 51.4%95 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Minnesota Twins | 68c | 26.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed Minnesota Twins | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e4…c62abacked Minnesota Twins | 69c | 18.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 4.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-5.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-6.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-4.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.