Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Swiatek (-1.5) vs Kostyuk (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42934298319f054cb28abeca9c2defe08ab29d06c830fad8bd8302227a873c35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kostyukof Swiatek, Kostyuk
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,391
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $117,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,391 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Kostyuk | 55c | 13,678$7,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,177.68 | 363 | 46.8%170 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Swiatek | 45c | 12,062$5,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,428.09 | 4,082 | 39.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L | +93.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Kostyuk | 52c | 6,222$3,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,986.67 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Swiatek | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,399.98 | 174 | 45.4%79 W · 95 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…95babacked Kostyuk | 52c | 2,077$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.92 | 625 | 45.4%284 W · 341 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Kostyuk | 53c | 1,831$973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.07 | 1,277 | 56.6%723 W · 554 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9644…d03bbacked Swiatek | 47c | 1,571$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.34 | 372 | 47.3%176 W · 196 L | -17.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x875f…aaddbacked Swiatek | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36b4…d723backed Swiatek | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 191 | 46.6%89 W · 102 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354b…4744backed Kostyuk | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…fa63backed Swiatek | 44c | 867.07$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…49d2backed Kostyuk | 53c | 813.34$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.96 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Kostyuk | 56c | 800$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfac1…3176backed Swiatek | 48c | 780.23$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.51 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdef…7f98backed Kostyuk | 53c | 754.72$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.72 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…920fbacked Swiatek | 48c | 750$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Swiatek | 46c | 492.1$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.26 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Swiatek | 47c | 373.86$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.71 | 587 | 45.7%268 W · 319 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…9dbabacked Kostyuk | 54c | 362.67$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.13 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Kostyuk | 52c | 305.14$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.47 | 910 | 50.2%457 W · 453 L | -20.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Swiatek | 47c | 294.87$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.55 | 7,107 | 39.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L | -17.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Kostyuk | 52c | 269.23$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.23 | 1,579 | 39.8%629 W · 950 L | -34.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Swiatek | 46c | 250$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1,245 | 51.9%646 W · 599 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97a1…d1eebacked Swiatek | 51c | 239.9$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.35 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc88…87adbacked Swiatek | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Swiatek | 49c | 203.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.52 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9360…67f0backed Swiatek | 49c | 202.04$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Kostyuk | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 581 | 45.8%266 W · 315 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…ca72backed Swiatek | 24c | 178$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Swiatek | 47c | 160.9$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.65 | 578 | 42.4%245 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Swiatek | 45c | 152.19$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.49 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee5a…9f70backed Swiatek | 45c | 150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 356 | 41.3%147 W · 209 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Kostyuk | 52c | 144.23$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.23 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Swiatek | 48c | 108$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.57 | 2,275 | 42.7%972 W · 1,303 L | +33.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac15…75a4backed Swiatek | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Kostyuk | 53c | 101.43$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 2,150 | 54.1%1,164 W · 986 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked Swiatek | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3c15backed Swiatek | 48c | 98.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 683 | 50.1%342 W · 341 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…53bbbacked Kostyuk | 55c | 91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Swiatek | 50c | 66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -5.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -29%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…4db8backed Swiatek | 49c | 61.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Kostyuk | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 394 | 69%272 W · 122 L | +27.8wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa324…eae0backed Swiatek | 48c | 56.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -5.5wins | -0.25per pick | 61cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Kostyuk | 52c | 55.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 2,776 | 53.7%1,491 W · 1,285 L | +69.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe22f…49b1backed Swiatek | 55c | 50.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Swiatek | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,269 | 44.8%568 W · 701 L | -5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4045…3307backed Swiatek | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7366…d1aabacked Swiatek | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Swiatek | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 122 | 50.8%62 W · 60 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…eb44backed Kostyuk | 53c | 43.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Swiatek | 46c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 389 | 47.3%184 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Swiatek | 48c | 38.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3679…b5a8backed Swiatek | 49c | 38.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Kostyuk | 46c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 2,639 | 46.4%1,224 W · 1,415 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdf…3a19backed Kostyuk | 53c | 36.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Swiatek | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Kostyuk | 50c | 34.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 956 | 58.2%556 W · 400 L | +19.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…551abacked Kostyuk | 52c | 30.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d5…53d0backed Swiatek | 50c | 24.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 176 | 56.3%99 W · 77 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff6…0918backed Swiatek | 48c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 498 | 57%284 W · 214 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Swiatek (-1.5) vs Kostyuk (+1.5)this page
- Kostyuk vs. Swiatek: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Kostyuk vs. Swiatek: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Kostyuk vs. Swiatek: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Marta Kostyuk vs. Iga Swiatek: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga SwiatekMarta Kostyuk won
- Set 1 Winner: Kostyuk vs SwiatekKostyuk won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.