Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Kostyuk vs Swiatek
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6250ddd3d57690d3f409b8951904e02ee455d0217f81f387f55bf89987a2386
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kostyukof Kostyuk, Swiatek
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,696
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,696 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa4f9…9419backed Swiatek | 37c | 1,320$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.42 | 308 | 27.6%85 W · 223 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Kostyuk | 34c | 800$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.08 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ac…7deebacked Kostyuk | 37c | 741.22$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.54 | 332 | 53.6%178 W · 154 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Kostyuk | 32c | 706.85$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.66 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x930b…0223backed Swiatek | 68c | 700$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Kostyuk | 50c | 634.39$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.91 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Kostyuk | 33c | 506$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.02 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…7047backed Swiatek | 67c | 501.66$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338 | 798 | 55.9%446 W · 352 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Kostyuk | 60c | 490.82$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.37 | 265 | 55.8%148 W · 117 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecb0…2329backed Swiatek | 63c | 471.9$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Swiatek | 67c | 447.76$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 242 | 59.9%145 W · 97 L | -12.1wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Swiatek | 68c | 447.05$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 419 | 55.8%234 W · 185 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Kostyuk | 33c | 395.6$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.05 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06d7…08f4backed Kostyuk | 56c | 359.04$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.04 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…a84abacked Swiatek | 67c | 340$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.4 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Kostyuk | 33c | 326.86$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.99 | 587 | 45.7%268 W · 319 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1f…f0d8backed Swiatek | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.32per pick | 69cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Kostyuk | 42c | 280.4$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.32 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95a3…cc1bbacked Swiatek | 57c | 249.3$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.9 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Kostyuk | 68c | 246.54$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.89 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6844…7633backed Swiatek | 60c | 235.5$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 105 | 40%42 W · 63 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Kostyuk | 34c | 232.57$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.57 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Kostyuk | 34c | 227.31$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.47 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64f4…b38ebacked Kostyuk | 44c | 225$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Swiatek | 60c | 204.89$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.23 | 376 | 45.7%172 W · 204 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Swiatek | 62c | 171.9$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.57 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca97…f3cebacked Kostyuk | 73c | 142.91$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Kostyuk | 37c | 140.17$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.86 | 830 | 47%390 W · 440 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…6e9bbacked Kostyuk | 70c | 124.92$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 282 | 49.3%139 W · 143 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x660b…9852backed Swiatek | 52c | 123.46$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Swiatek | 64c | 122.89$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Swiatek | 52c | 120$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2c…cd4ebacked Kostyuk | 55c | 106.33$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.33 | 249 | 45.4%113 W · 136 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Kostyuk | 61c | 97.62$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Kostyuk | 48c | 92.59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31d6…b5c9backed Swiatek | 23c | 88.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Swiatek | 68c | 73.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 632 | 52.8%334 W · 298 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc457…c88fbacked Swiatek | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…83b2backed Kostyuk | 39c | 71.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +158.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Kostyuk | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 788 | 57.1%450 W · 338 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Swiatek | 26c | 61.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Kostyuk | 40c | 61.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.97 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd729…7ef2backed Swiatek | 59c | 59.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b35…1dcebacked Swiatek | 21c | 52.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Kostyuk | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1,250 | 44.7%559 W · 691 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3b…d591backed Kostyuk | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 197 | 45.7%90 W · 107 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a69…5a45backed Swiatek | 31c | 48.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a8…b1f7backed Swiatek | 65c | 46.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 287 | 38.3%110 W · 177 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac50…d728backed Kostyuk | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 283 | 43.8%124 W · 159 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f77…32cdbacked Swiatek | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +458.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Kostyuk | 60c | 40.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ccf…aa10backed Swiatek | 63c | 38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9947…925dbacked Swiatek | 70c | 34.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…fe16backed Kostyuk | 40c | 32.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 710 | 21.3%151 W · 559 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Swiatek | 75c | 32.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ce…af35backed Kostyuk | 33c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Swiatek | 63c | 22.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 1,354 | 43.9%595 W · 759 L | -62.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Swiatek | 58c | 21.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c89…0057backed Kostyuk | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ce…3273backed Kostyuk | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Kostyuk | 64c | 19.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 846 | 40%338 W · 508 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Kostyuk vs Swiatekthis page
- Kostyuk vs. Swiatek: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Kostyuk vs. Swiatek: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Kostyuk vs. Swiatek: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Marta Kostyuk vs. Iga Swiatek: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga SwiatekMarta Kostyuk won
- Set Handicap: Swiatek (-1.5) vs Kostyuk (+1.5)Kostyuk won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.