Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42b26ffc317c4f18eafeac1423e57b8e9488140136ea220dba3089f9d877fa03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 11c | 733.45$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.92 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 614.19$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.53 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 49c | 455.77$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.57 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…c40abacked Yes | 21c | 368.9$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.06 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…e6ddbacked No | 50c | 286.37$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.43 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 17c | 231.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 228.34$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.84 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 66c | 223.03$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.8 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…f330backed Yes | 24c | 217.58$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.36 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40de…66bdbacked Yes | 11c | 210$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.9 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 61c | 191.7$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.77 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 16c | 191.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.7 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 12c | 179.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.35 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 78c | 155.52$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.88 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 19c | 142.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 12c | 138$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb344…31eabacked Yes | 74c | 121.2$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0f…c1e6backed Yes | 20c | 106.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.35 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 104$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 54c | 100.12$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.89 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 49c | 94$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 76c | 88$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.88 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c65…2e0dbacked Yes | 58c | 85.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.81 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 79c | 77.8$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.72 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 73.56$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a20…c1b5backed Yes | 64c | 65.19$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 63c | 60.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x020c…f6c9backed Yes | 26c | 59.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 76c | 59.37$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2e…64a4backed No | 76c | 58.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 80c | 55.37$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 24c | 51.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked Yes | 69c | 49.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 24c | 49.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.82 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked Yes | 21c | 49.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.09 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ab…8e21backed No | 79c | 48.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Yes | 32c | 40.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 61c | 35.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd160…9837backed No | 76c | 31.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 66c | 31.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 72c | 31.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 76c | 28.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 77c | 28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf336…beb1backed No | 76c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 76c | 18.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 76c | 18.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 63c | 17.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 35°C on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.