Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa14345e95fb61c59fdf36f3bb093a70fc941c3016df72ef8f712d13bdc4b060d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 8c | 622.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 67c | 464.46$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.71 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 29c | 282.76$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.67 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 27c | 215.24$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.85 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 30c | 198.3$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 33c | 192.15$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.01 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 46c | 186.51$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.16 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 36c | 165.82$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.62 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 47c | 164.96$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.68 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 36c | 151.56$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 37c | 149.92$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.92 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 144$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 33c | 131.77$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.17 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 79c | 126.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 70c | 110$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 72c | 108.4$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.66 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 29c | 105$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34f7…f12bbacked No | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.56 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 15c | 99.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 41c | 99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca4…9ccbbacked No | 28c | 98.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.33 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 50c | 95.1$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 47c | 90.09$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.75 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 56c | 85$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 44c | 83.42$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.79 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 42c | 83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 71c | 77.55$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 53c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 70c | 67.15$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 36c | 64.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.74 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2e…64a4backed No | 31c | 58.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.16 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 41c | 57.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 51c | 52.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 37c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 38c | 47.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 38c | 46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…1d32backed Yes | 73c | 44.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 65c | 42.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 30c | 41.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 58c | 38.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 64c | 36.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 64c | 36.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 49c | 35.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 39c | 35.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 61c | 34.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 48c | 34.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 63c | 33.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 65c | 32.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 58c | 30.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2350…a351backed Yes | 63c | 30.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 59c | 29.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 40c | 28.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 38c | 28.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 55c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 63c | 27.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 70c | 27.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 66c | 27.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 46c | 26.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 72c | 24.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 58c | 23.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 58c | 22.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 65c | 22.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf122…d07cbacked Yes | 63c | 22.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf56…2be0backed Yes | 63c | 22.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5d…f085backed Yes | 70c | 21.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 51c | 20.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ab…8e21backed Yes | 80c | 16.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…df20backed Yes | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on July 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 35°C on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.