MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42c54a955f41bb7c9ad53aec2a61b639e65885a0b003e9a39ffa6b832ecbcdc4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,341
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,341 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 46c | 4,456$2,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,406.3 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 3,515$1,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,617.04 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 41c | 2,029$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,197.05 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 57c | 1,999$1,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,139.43 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb8…3058backed Under | 64c | 1,499$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.36 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 45c | 1,195$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.75 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1f…9136backed Under | 68c | 934.04$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.15 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 762.11$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.21 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 54c | 578.5$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.28 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…8a55backed Over | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 31c | 329.89$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.66 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 63c | 292.97$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.4 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Under | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 66c | 240$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 53c | 227$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.69 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 44c | 157.32$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.27 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 59c | 143$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.37 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc908…2f61backed Under | 59c | 138$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.42 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 35c | 128.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 58c | 127.36$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.43 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…3a3fbacked Over | 44c | 114$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.84 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Over | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 105 | 59%62 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 71c | 96.73$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.71 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 37c | 75.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 69c | 70.16$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 59c | 45.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e6…ef53backed Over | 41c | 40.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 30c | 34.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 54c | 34.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 39c | 30.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 39c | 30.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 66c | 24.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7885…1173backed Over | 47c | 24.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Over | 53c | 22.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 74c | 20.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 65c | 20.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 59c | 20.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.