MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d857bc4970e187e459d9db35e73a3070117310cfe8b1e86e7ce8ff8526f3ad3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof San Diego Padres, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,418
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,418 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres | 44c | 7,014$3,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,904.35 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed San Diego Padres | 15c | 650.53$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.95 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed San Diego Padres | 15c | 650.53$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.95 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 635.93$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.28 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Diego Padres | 39c | 424$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.64 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres | 15c | 390.88$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.53 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f55…8956backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 369.84$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.81 | 148 | 58.8%87 W · 61 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed San Diego Padres | 15c | 325.27$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.48 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 319.98$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.59 | 483 | 54.7%264 W · 219 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Diego Padres | 31c | 297.72$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.07 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Cincinnati Reds | 69c | 286$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.34 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…0e56backed San Diego Padres | 37c | 269.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.1 | 208 | 48.6%101 W · 107 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 268.97$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.45 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed San Diego Padres | 77c | 253.47$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.54 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked San Diego Padres | 37c | 240$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.2 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 237.35$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.16 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 231.23$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.36 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Cincinnati Reds | 22c | 210.05$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.07 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 200$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 71c | 156$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.22 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Diego Padres | 32c | 113.36$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.3 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 98.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.42 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cincinnati Reds | 73c | 93$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.71 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked San Diego Padres | 40c | 86.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.35 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked San Diego Padres | 42c | 82.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.65 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed San Diego Padres | 16c | 76.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.04 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed San Diego Padres | 16c | 73.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.04 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 70.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked San Diego Padres | 38c | 68.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 55.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked San Diego Padres | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed San Diego Padres | 37c | 48.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 45.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked San Diego Padres | 48c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 44.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked San Diego Padres | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed San Diego Padres | 46c | 32.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked San Diego Padres | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d2…e9c3backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 24.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 107 | 68.2%73 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae3…93c3backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 24.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 22.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.