MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x777fd6eeeec09d890a54feda8f76d22b2dd36afa4b49133100d40655e419ba21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,888
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,888 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 57c | 11,729$6,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,068.87 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddf…c684backed Over | 43c | 9,055$3,894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,893.53 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 40c | 2,254$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.14 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 54c | 1,894$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.16 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 43c | 1,772$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.64 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 57c | 1,500$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 43c | 1,246$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.64 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 28c | 1,071$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.93 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 1,066$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.44 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Under | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.19 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 844.95$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.73 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 34c | 673.79$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.05 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 45c | 658.26$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.44 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Under | 57c | 438.6$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.6 | 431 | 53.6%231 W · 200 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 72c | 298$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.44 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 76c | 257$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.68 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 46c | 240$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 21c | 238.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 43c | 204.67$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 32c | 184.3$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.98 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 21c | 183$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 24c | 179.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 68c | 167.58$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.32 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 19c | 164$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 43c | 140$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Over | 44c | 121.95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.66 | 134 | 41%55 W · 79 L | -12.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Under | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f3…e1eebacked Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Under | 80c | 99.95$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 20c | 99.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 27c | 98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 46c | 83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 45c | 71.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Over | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 105 | 59%62 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Under | 54c | 59.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 44c | 59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 46c | 52.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Under | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 45c | 48.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 57c | 46.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 24c | 45.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Under | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +7.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf474…2775backed Over | 47c | 42.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -6.9wins | -0.28per pick | 52cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…3353backed Over | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf64…26f3backed Under | 80c | 33.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e68…b271backed Under | 57c | 29.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…1002backed Over | 44c | 27.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ce…41acbacked Under | 56c | 23.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 45c | 23.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 60c | 19.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb208…e0b2backed Under | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6a58backed Under | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Under | 79c | 13.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.