South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: CS Independiente Rivadavia (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42ef9eca77a4f846f704ead6dc2cab0e91b98379ea95f5cf0b2cfe0dbc9d1688
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CS Independiente Rivadaviaof CS Independiente Rivadavia, Deportivo La Guaira FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,522
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,768
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,522 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 75c | 2,445$1,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,828.73 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 61c | 930.5$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.84 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed CS Independiente Rivadavia | 22c | 920$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.6 | 224 | 57.1%128 W · 96 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed CS Independiente Rivadavia | 21c | 826.88$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.26 | 422 | 50.2%212 W · 210 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed CS Independiente Rivadavia | 38c | 703.94$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.47 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 78c | 696$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.88 | 429 | 62.2%267 W · 162 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…3cbebacked CS Independiente Rivadavia | 22c | 645.05$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1e…f992backed CS Independiente Rivadavia | 33c | 606.06$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.06 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed CS Independiente Rivadavia | 24c | 581.94$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.7 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked CS Independiente Rivadavia | 22c | 445.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.76 | 129 | 58.1%75 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked CS Independiente Rivadavia | 25c | 300$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 138 | 28.3%39 W · 99 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa823…3327backed CS Independiente Rivadavia | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.39 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Deportivo La Guaira FC | 48c | 180$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.92 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 66c | 161.55$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.2 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…88dbbacked Deportivo La Guaira FC | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed CS Independiente Rivadavia | 57c | 152$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.36 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed CS Independiente Rivadavia | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.43 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61a1…1307backed CS Independiente Rivadavia | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x425b…dbfdbacked CS Independiente Rivadavia | 26c | 82.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.94 | 81 | 33.3%27 W · 54 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Deportivo La Guaira FC | 74c | 77.43$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked CS Independiente Rivadavia | 22c | 68.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.51 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked CS Independiente Rivadavia | 22c | 68.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.15 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +15.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed CS Independiente Rivadavia | 21c | 66.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.22 | 258 | 66.3%171 W · 87 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed CS Independiente Rivadavia | 23c | 65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 118 | 64.4%76 W · 42 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked CS Independiente Rivadavia | 21c | 58.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.57 | 166 | 53.6%89 W · 77 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…8e95backed CS Independiente Rivadavia | 45c | 57.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 79c | 42.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 218 | 44.5%97 W · 121 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 77c | 24.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 74c | 16.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: CS Independiente Rivadavia (-1.5)this page
- Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 1.5Over won
- Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 2.5Over won
- Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 3.5Over won
- Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: CS Independiente Rivadavia (-2.5)Deportivo La Guaira FC won
- Spread: Deportivo La Guaira FC (-1.5)CS Independiente Rivadavia won
- Spread: Deportivo La Guaira FC (-2.5)CS Independiente Rivadavia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.