South American Leagues · resolved market
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fd3a5d37de2c138d650bb1292c10c9b9f1a4c872af431b2dcf1bae1d2e46e34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,842
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,256
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,842 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 7c | 10,825$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,071.46 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 3,254$1,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,786.78 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 28c | 1,300$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.21 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 38c | 850$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.88 | 489 | 22.9%112 W · 377 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Under | 71c | 369$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.42 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 29c | 300$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213 | 138 | 28.3%39 W · 99 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e35…3655backed Over | 39c | 282.05$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.05 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 24c | 275$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0742backed Under | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 38c | 209.07$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.81 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 47c | 202.13$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.13 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 50c | 199.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 80c | 168.75$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 88 | 87.5%77 W · 11 L | +19.9wins | +0.23per pick | 65cpaid | +42%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…90ebbacked Under | 51c | 133.33$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d8…d8a7backed Over | 21c | 127.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.71 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 42c | 126.63$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.22 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 27c | 126.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.76 | 269 | 65.4%176 W · 93 L | +48.9wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf0…72cebacked Over | 54c | 109.09$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.18 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 24c | 68.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 313 | 55.6%174 W · 139 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Under | 62c | 63.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Over | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c74…0d16backed Over | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…5f93backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19a4…a65bbacked Over | 55c | 32.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe331…0163backed Over | 48c | 32.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +8.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked Over | 41c | 28.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -45%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb435…b97cbacked Over | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf886…d825backed Under | 56c | 23.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Under | 50c | 20.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c4…898dbacked Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 4.5this page
- Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 1.5Over won
- Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 2.5Over won
- Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: CS Independiente Rivadavia (-1.5)CS Independiente Rivadavia won
- Spread: CS Independiente Rivadavia (-2.5)Deportivo La Guaira FC won
- Spread: Deportivo La Guaira FC (-1.5)CS Independiente Rivadavia won
- Spread: Deportivo La Guaira FC (-2.5)CS Independiente Rivadavia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.