Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43881041f15912ad438bfe7121504e4cfe0325d76767c38bfd48c8992c51d19e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,079
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,079 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 320.5$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.87 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 33c | 301.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.69 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 8c | 292.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 263.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.46 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed Yes | 41c | 245.82$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.57 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed Yes | 8c | 239.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d0abbacked Yes | 7c | 220.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 72c | 217.39$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.48 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 215.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.65 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 198.67$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 13c | 169.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 56c | 166.12$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.09 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 15c | 147.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 23c | 135.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…4c59backed Yes | 44c | 128.11$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6382…acbdbacked No | 77c | 127.35$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 8c | 125$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 40c | 123.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x337d…6c88backed Yes | 40c | 117.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…d40fbacked No | 78c | 114.6$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 15c | 110.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 38c | 100.59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed No | 62c | 99.96$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…6fe7backed Yes | 21c | 96.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 90.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 89.85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 89.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 31c | 88.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed No | 59c | 87.75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57c7…3291backed Yes | 39c | 83.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.42per pick | 53cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 14c | 78.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…9df3backed Yes | 35c | 69.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e9…780dbacked Yes | 18c | 67.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe951…ea77backed No | 70c | 64.79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…4e57backed No | 68c | 62.01$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 56c | 58.08$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 24c | 54.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 42c | 52.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 43c | 52.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5668…1f91backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…bf33backed No | 66c | 49.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 48c | 49.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 58c | 49.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 40c | 49.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 34c | 48.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 69c | 48.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 41c | 48.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed Yes | 44c | 47.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 40c | 47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd16f…2badbacked Yes | 42c | 44.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 40c | 42.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 42.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 50c | 41.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 34c | 40.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 51c | 36.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 38c | 35.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Yes | 45c | 31.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 146 | 13.7%20 W · 126 L | -19.1wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…ae14backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…5154backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 69c | 29.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 53c | 26.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 54c | 25.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 61c | 20.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 61c | 20.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 65c | 19.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 61c | 19.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C or higher on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on April 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on April 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.