TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on April 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,700
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,818

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,700 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes73c729.69$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.1786420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No55c425.27$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.892,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Yes74c349.57$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.752951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes21c282.35$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.988,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes63c268.54$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.295,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No32c261.42$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.5759923.5%141 W · 458 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf767…f052backed Yes30c260.75$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.198461.9%52 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes36c212.36$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.681,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x59d4…b745backed Yes47c199.93$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.4527540%110 W · 165 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No14c180.16$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No12c170.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7634219.9%68 W · 274 L+18.6wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b9a…1fefbacked Yes29c167.1$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.94366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+75.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No24c163.64$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No75c161.5$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.582,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No11c159.57$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2663656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes28c157.08$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.7225839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No69c156.98$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.029,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked No22c131.42$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4442130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c129.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.912,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes31c127.24$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.271,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes19c113.02$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.9186226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed Yes28c99.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.491,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5546…c8cebacked No15c99.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159819.4%19 W · 79 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick18cpaid+20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes29c99.5$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.5617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x76a6…b7dcbacked No74c97.41$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.1714834.5%51 W · 97 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes29c96.62$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.66747.8%32 W · 35 L+6.6wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+31.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3975…75fabacked No17c89.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.876918.8%13 W · 56 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes23c89.19$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.683,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec4d…087ebacked Yes27c86.37$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.962733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb55c…04eabacked No77c84.98$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5320172.6%146 W · 55 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick76cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes27c83.44$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.9194919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc96c…b868backed Yes39c73.75$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.2129137.8%110 W · 181 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13d3…415ebacked Yes80c70$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.342253.1%224 W · 198 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x013a…e374backed Yes30c65.21$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.748432.1%27 W · 57 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3bef…3304backed Yes19c61.59$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.899830.6%30 W · 68 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No60c61.41$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.811,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes79c58$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1918530.3%56 W · 129 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes30c57.85$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.493,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes69c56.19$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.521,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes31c54.79$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.8163538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f6…eadabacked No77c54.25$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8616575.8%125 W · 40 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2117…9bedbacked No72c50.64$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.466946.4%32 W · 37 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No79c50.38$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4097570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0eb…a7d8backed No78c50.25$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.135874.1%43 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd333…53f9backed Yes28c50.03$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.118934.8%31 W · 58 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1116046.3%74 W · 86 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3599949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa493…1b55backed Yes34c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3326933.1%89 W · 180 L+21.8wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+71.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf899…0759backed Yes37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.526738.6%103 W · 164 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0919…a292backed No74c49.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.99560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+29.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No77c49.9$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5652571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d91…f592backed Yes30c49.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.25407.5%3 W · 37 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-74.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed No78c48.8$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1126566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc52a…e37abacked No77c48.72$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6918272%131 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3f90…4e02backed Yes29c48.49$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5614613.7%20 W · 126 L-19.1wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-44.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No51c47.09$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No71c45.77$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.572466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes32c45.02$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4632044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c24…81e9backed Yes72c44.75$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.741770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+24.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x052e…ade1backed Yes24c44.44$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.5628329.3%83 W · 200 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ea0…8e3bbacked Yes73c43.93$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.781258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4b1…ab63backed No39c43.7$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1838547.5%183 W · 202 L+16.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+24.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa76c…9df3backed Yes38c43.42$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.976547.7%31 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes28c43.31$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3759125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No76c42.66$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.252,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No72c42.57$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6598571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No76c42.25$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2548672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb198…6291backed Yes27c41.73$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.3513340.6%54 W · 79 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No50c40.47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.164,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8208…a737backed No77c38.22$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3122675.7%171 W · 55 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3543…c63fbacked Yes32c37.9$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.775947.5%28 W · 31 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c54…ae3fbacked Yes29c36.61$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.991947.4%9 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-14.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes80c36.5$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4245236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec42…5ffbbacked No77c36$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5815176.8%116 W · 35 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick76cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x017c…00c3backed Yes33c34.52$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1725042.4%106 W · 144 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb4f…2c34backed No70c34.28$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241968.4%13 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x440c…8dccbacked Yes34c33.89$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.219635.4%34 W · 62 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes38c32.55$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.3228648.3%138 W · 148 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9982…2822backed Yes32c31.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.253234.4%11 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfa3…1e24backed Yes63c30.56$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3110260.8%62 W · 40 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea0d…c1b6backed No79c30.26$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9221676.4%165 W · 51 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No69c30.25$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.981,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a3b…401ebacked Yes35c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.56959.4%41 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d47…10b4backed No45c29.97$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4922344.8%100 W · 123 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c36…08f5backed No73c26.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.561866.7%12 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No70c26.76$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.822,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39fa…0b7dbacked No73c24.66$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1840777.1%314 W · 93 L+28.1wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3506…ad95backed No69c24.55$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.964355.8%24 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe166…7227backed No80c24.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.69779.4%77 W · 20 L+8.9wins+0.09per pick70cpaid+14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xce9a…8ea6backed No68c24.27$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4518878.2%147 W · 41 L+19.4wins+0.10per pick68cpaid+17.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No70c24.23$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.951,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc52f…0981backed No79c22.7$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8414671.2%104 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick71cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13f3…d427backed No70c21.51$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0632669%225 W · 101 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c69…4622backed No67c21.51$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4156265.5%368 W · 194 L+35.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x74e3…242cbacked No80c21.5$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.15450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb692…7c83backed Yes80c20.58$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.1211770.9%83 W · 34 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x625f…5c20backed No77c20.19$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.649666.7%64 W · 32 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-7.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x65c3…b5e5backed Yes79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.3450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-31.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2097…8063backed No74c19.7$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.619668.8%66 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.