Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50bd6d05fb6ff6c288fd64cdd4761aa45d820c18166cd224c9deae87f15e3183
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,700
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,818
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,700 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 73c | 729.69$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.17 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 55c | 425.27$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.89 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 74c | 349.57$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.75 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 282.35$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.98 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 63c | 268.54$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.29 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 32c | 261.42$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.57 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed Yes | 30c | 260.75$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.19 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 36c | 212.36$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.68 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 47c | 199.93$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.45 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 14c | 180.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 12c | 170.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9a…1fefbacked Yes | 29c | 167.1$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 24c | 163.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 161.5$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.58 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 11c | 159.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 28c | 157.08$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.72 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 156.98$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.02 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 22c | 131.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 129.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 31c | 127.24$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.27 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 19c | 113.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.91 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.49 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…c8cebacked No | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 99.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked No | 74c | 97.41$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.17 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes | 29c | 96.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.6 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…75fabacked No | 17c | 89.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 89.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.68 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec4d…087ebacked Yes | 27c | 86.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.96 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 77c | 84.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.53 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 27c | 83.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.91 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 39c | 73.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.21 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013a…e374backed Yes | 30c | 65.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…3304backed Yes | 19c | 61.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.89 | 98 | 30.6%30 W · 68 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 60c | 61.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 79c | 58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 57.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 69c | 56.19$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 31c | 54.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 77c | 54.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked No | 72c | 50.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 79c | 50.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0eb…a7d8backed No | 78c | 50.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 28c | 50.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…a292backed No | 74c | 49.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 77c | 49.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Yes | 30c | 49.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 78c | 48.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 77c | 48.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Yes | 29c | 48.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 146 | 13.7%20 W · 126 L | -19.1wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 47.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 71c | 45.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 32c | 45.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c24…81e9backed Yes | 72c | 44.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 24c | 44.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea0…8e3bbacked Yes | 73c | 43.93$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 39c | 43.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…9df3backed Yes | 38c | 43.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 28c | 43.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 42.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 72c | 42.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 76c | 42.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 27c | 41.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 50c | 40.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 77c | 38.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3543…c63fbacked Yes | 32c | 37.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c54…ae3fbacked Yes | 29c | 36.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 80c | 36.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 77c | 36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 33c | 34.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4f…2c34backed No | 70c | 34.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 34c | 33.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 38c | 32.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…2822backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…1e24backed Yes | 63c | 30.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 79c | 30.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 69c | 30.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…401ebacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 45c | 29.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c36…08f5backed No | 73c | 26.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 26.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 73c | 24.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…ad95backed No | 69c | 24.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed No | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 68c | 24.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 24.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 79c | 22.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 21.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 21.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74e3…242cbacked No | 80c | 21.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed Yes | 80c | 20.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 77c | 20.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65c3…b5e5backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed No | 74c | 19.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C or higher on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on April 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.