Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4393603440b319f9193c313f8e4afd0e0aefeb359ff7fb1a82b08d793f22092f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,698
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,698 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 20c | 1,046$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.39 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 463.63$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 457.83$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 9c | 421.93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 32c | 419.44$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 30c | 400.03$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.91 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 75c | 390.59$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.96 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 26c | 330.43$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.06 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 6c | 291.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe05f…1fe3backed No | 72c | 276.08$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 12c | 273.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 22c | 243.03$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 22c | 238.12$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…eed8backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 69c | 184.77$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.17 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…d9edbacked No | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 15c | 135.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 19c | 134.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 73c | 113.56$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 10c | 106.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 16c | 99.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 89.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4089…e7b2backed Yes | 16c | 84.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 20c | 76.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed No | 69c | 72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 77c | 65.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 63.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d7…6530backed Yes | 24c | 62.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 72c | 61.11$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked Yes | 23c | 56.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59c1…12cebacked Yes | 25c | 54.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafad…acf1backed No | 75c | 53.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xede2…5c8bbacked No | 70c | 49.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 70c | 48.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 68c | 44.94$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 73c | 43.28$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 74c | 38.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…7ef6backed No | 74c | 36.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 116 | 70.7%82 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 75c | 36.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 75c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 70c | 35.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb735…15f6backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked No | 75c | 26.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 111 | 64%71 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…0589backed No | 75c | 26.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 86 | 73.3%63 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8389…7144backed No | 77c | 25.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 22.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 72c | 20.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 75c | 17.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823a…61abbacked No | 75c | 15.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x008e…f878backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 72cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 14.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 75c | 14.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed No | 70c | 14.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 73°F or below on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 92°F or higher on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on May 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.