Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeeaca1e8240b19175928b82786a67bef16c3531f7ae308711a6b30ceb3cd57ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,780
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,780 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 474.23$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.62 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 24c | 413.17$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.19 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 375.59$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 362$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.97 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed No | 42c | 356.14$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.14 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 27c | 321.33$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.21 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 23c | 293.5$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.11 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 250.79$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.72 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…1c88backed Yes | 76c | 223.64$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 21c | 210.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73ae…3b52backed Yes | 46c | 199.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 64c | 190.9$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.9 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 68c | 190$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.09 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf69d…74d2backed Yes | 28c | 181.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 77c | 179.51$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 28c | 178.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…3920backed Yes | 61c | 167.4$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.66 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 49c | 167.14$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.75 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 48c | 157.35$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 37c | 153.05$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.16 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 75c | 148.35$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 69c | 144.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 56c | 141$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.63 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 48c | 138.33$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.57 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82b5…5475backed No | 79c | 138.29$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed No | 34c | 133.78$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.74 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 38c | 133.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 78c | 127.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes | 71c | 123.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.78 | 117 | 24.8%29 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 21c | 118.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 56c | 115.1$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.81 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 26c | 113.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…eed8backed Yes | 70c | 112.69$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.88 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 60c | 106.24$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.03 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 21c | 104.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed No | 68c | 101.49$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…3538backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 24c | 95.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb48f…938ebacked Yes | 21c | 93.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf580…824bbacked Yes | 67c | 89.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 46c | 89.76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.69 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 51c | 88.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 30c | 87.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.93 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 65c | 84.93$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x143c…487ebacked Yes | 25c | 80.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 57c | 79.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 18c | 76.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 78c | 76.07$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 65c | 74.03$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 73.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 75c | 72.82$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 51c | 70.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 29c | 69.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a1…a85ebacked No | 74c | 67.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed No | 74c | 67.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 21c | 63.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae94…7efbbacked Yes | 25c | 63.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 62.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…65d5backed No | 33c | 60.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 58.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 61c | 55.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb830…2ff3backed Yes | 28c | 53.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59c1…12cebacked Yes | 21c | 52.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d7…6530backed Yes | 28c | 51.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc64…37f0backed Yes | 29c | 51.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…f52ebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked No | 72c | 49.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…da03backed Yes | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 49.07$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3364…5effbacked Yes | 25c | 48.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 79c | 47.61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 80c | 46.34$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 22c | 45.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 23c | 45.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c8…e547backed No | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 43.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 78c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x291d…8e36backed Yes | 25c | 43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 23cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b27…7d50backed Yes | 59c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -5.5wins | -0.24per pick | 37cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 37.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 75c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacba…40a1backed No | 78c | 36.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 36.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 76c | 36.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 74c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d1…7ab7backed No | 80c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 57c | 32.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4876…22e2backed Yes | 57c | 32.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 41c | 31.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 45c | 30.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 73°F or below on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 92°F or higher on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on May 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.