TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on May 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,037
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,454

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,037 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf787…1b63backed Yes29c597.03$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.2843238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc64…37f0backed Yes22c579.56$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.563540%14 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+21.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes32c471.43$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.424,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No2c449.59$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.332,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No68c362$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.255,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes31c339.26$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.6173927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes19c315.38$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.6817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes34c312.44$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.751,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No64c308.29$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.3612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes38c263.54$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.921,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No64c256.69$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.183,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6973…b296backed Yes55c239.7$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.7713728.5%39 W · 98 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+52.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes36c223.87$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.282,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes35c200$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.724,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes47c199.24$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.4870741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73ae…3b52backed Yes37c197.45$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.985738.6%22 W · 35 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes56c178.02$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.755,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No43c172.85$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.295,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe57…3920backed Yes17c167.65$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.377832.1%25 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed Yes36c164.53$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.0784930.6%260 W · 589 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfba1…2769backed Yes46c164.52$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.8510640.6%43 W · 63 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c2…d53dbacked No64c156.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013755.5%76 W · 61 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No44c154.01$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.351,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes40c150.27$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.2731943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No50c149.07$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.664,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No55c126.98$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.841,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9819…fe16backed Yes35c125.31$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.037949.4%39 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No42c124.92$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.1488650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No74c120.14$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.264,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes27c116.98$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.894,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50d8…0a0ebacked No74c109.38$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8139968.9%275 W · 124 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ea…7ef6backed No71c104.33$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.2311670.7%82 W · 34 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb48f…938ebacked Yes29c104.07$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.071040%4 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+37.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No63c103.26$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.576755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e04…67f4backed No72c101.6$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.756668.2%45 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick72cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8dd…ec86backed No75c101.06$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.1519057.9%110 W · 80 L-9.5wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No55c100.3$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.061,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82b5…5475backed No50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501573.3%11 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1bd…940ebacked No71c98.02$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.6717071.2%121 W · 49 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No71c95.08$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.812,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No62c88.8$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.063,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes23c85.52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.712,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No68c82$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.744,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes23c78.77$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.2924434.4%84 W · 160 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No61c77.61$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.48,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb85…f401backed Yes43c75.61$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.1231124.1%75 W · 236 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd92e…5ae3backed Yes30c75.61$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.113435.3%12 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes36c75$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0234934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x420c…1f36backed Yes43c70.28$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.2829835.2%105 W · 193 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes34c70.19$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.031,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf839…4407backed No72c69.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick61cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No64c66.26$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2467336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes45c66$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.318337.7%69 W · 114 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe5d7…6530backed Yes34c60.01$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.623360.6%20 W · 13 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+13.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes38c60$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.053,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae94…7efbbacked Yes29c59.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.592850%14 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xebe0…52dcbacked Yes34c58.69$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.894738.3%18 W · 29 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No76c58.6$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.533,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xecc6…b97abacked Yes28c52.59$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.9917536.6%64 W · 111 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+31.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes49c51$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1142130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xadd7…8622backed No70c50.97$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6817766.7%118 W · 59 L-0.8wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked No72c49.98$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9844646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x23b2…605cbacked No71c49.22$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3511459.6%68 W · 46 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-11.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No70c48.87$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0699963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No63c48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.241,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf1e1…c152backed Yes55c47.45$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.220231.2%63 W · 139 L+22.2wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+13.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes30c46.33$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.343,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2632…6475backed Yes43c46.24$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.43246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No63c43.24$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.248,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x59c1…12cebacked Yes30c42.56$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.592835.7%10 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No67c42.15$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.342,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No63c42$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.43,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked No70c41.51$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0893734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x13e0…82f9backed No75c40.07$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030565.9%201 W · 104 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes33c40$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.828649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb21b…c396backed Yes30c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2823241.8%97 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes25c40$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3046240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f28…2cefbacked Yes70c39.87$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.014100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+60.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xede2…5c8bbacked No62c37.76$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.39250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-28.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No71c36.07$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.765965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a68…edd3backed Yes42c35.65$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6518235.2%64 W · 118 L-14.0wins-0.08per pick43cpaid+7.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No66c34.88$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.042,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2671…a5fabacked No72c34.72$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2519059.5%113 W · 77 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes58c34.37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.491,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No59c34.19$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.289262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0x9151…a93ebacked No72c33.82$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.411164%71 W · 40 L+7.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+70.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c94…1ff4backed No62c33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.461050%5 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No61c31.11$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.072,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.54,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed No71c29.93$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.248919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No69c29.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.332,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked No75c29.42$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.134067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd464…f291backed No68c27.97$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.921050%5 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f5d…3384backed No72c27.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.728270.2%198 W · 84 L+0.1wins0.00per pick70cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce05…ff90backed No62c27.32$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0124053.3%128 W · 112 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No69c25.61$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6771464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe54c…2c69backed Yes57c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.825560.8%155 W · 100 L+16.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No63c23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.452,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No68c22.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.411,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.