Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8d47d9cc83f7a6d841106632536e410523718665b851f19ce7dc7e04cdc1fe1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,037
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,037 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 29c | 597.03$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.28 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc64…37f0backed Yes | 22c | 579.56$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.56 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 32c | 471.43$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.42 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 2c | 449.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 362$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.25 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 31c | 339.26$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.61 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 315.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 34c | 312.44$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.75 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 308.29$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.36 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 38c | 263.54$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.92 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 64c | 256.69$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.18 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed Yes | 55c | 239.7$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.77 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 36c | 223.87$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.28 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.72 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 47c | 199.24$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.48 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73ae…3b52backed Yes | 37c | 197.45$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.98 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 56c | 178.02$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 43c | 172.85$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.29 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…3920backed Yes | 17c | 167.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.37 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 36c | 164.53$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.07 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 46c | 164.52$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.85 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 44c | 154.01$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.35 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 40c | 150.27$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.27 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 50c | 149.07$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.66 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 55c | 126.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.84 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 35c | 125.31$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.03 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 42c | 124.92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.14 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 74c | 120.14$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.26 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 116.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.89 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 74c | 109.38$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…7ef6backed No | 71c | 104.33$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.23 | 116 | 70.7%82 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb48f…938ebacked Yes | 29c | 104.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.07 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 63c | 103.26$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e04…67f4backed No | 72c | 101.6$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.75 | 66 | 68.2%45 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 75c | 101.06$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.15 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 55c | 100.3$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.06 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b5…5475backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 71c | 98.02$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.67 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 95.08$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.81 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 88.8$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.06 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 23c | 85.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.71 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 82$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.74 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 23c | 78.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.29 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 61c | 77.61$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 43c | 75.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd92e…5ae3backed Yes | 30c | 75.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 36c | 75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 43c | 70.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 34c | 70.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.03 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf839…4407backed No | 72c | 69.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 64c | 66.26$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 45c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d7…6530backed Yes | 34c | 60.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae94…7efbbacked Yes | 29c | 59.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe0…52dcbacked Yes | 34c | 58.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 76c | 58.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 28c | 52.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 49c | 51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 70c | 50.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 72c | 49.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 71c | 49.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 70c | 48.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 63c | 48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 55c | 47.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 46.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2632…6475backed Yes | 43c | 46.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 43.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59c1…12cebacked Yes | 30c | 42.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 67c | 42.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 70c | 41.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 75c | 40.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f28…2cefbacked Yes | 70c | 39.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xede2…5c8bbacked No | 62c | 37.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 71c | 36.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 42c | 35.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 66c | 34.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 58c | 34.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 59c | 34.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked No | 72c | 33.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 111 | 64%71 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c94…1ff4backed No | 62c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 61c | 31.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 71c | 29.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 69c | 29.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked No | 75c | 29.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd464…f291backed No | 68c | 27.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 72c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 62c | 27.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 69c | 25.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 63c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 68c | 22.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 73°F or below on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 92°F or higher on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.