TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Portugal vs. Nigeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,190
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,896

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,190 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xad53…ef24backed Under2c586.96$12 inLost-$11.748226.8%22 W · 60 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-21.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb209…b744backed Under7c450$32 inLost-$31.518642.5%79 W · 107 L+10.5wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-14.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f2c…9d16backed Over43c108.4$47 inWon+$61.428240.8%115 W · 167 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd35…17debacked Over72c104.93$76 inWon+$28.933568.6%24 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x43f6…6de6backed Under64c90$58 inLost-$57.63342.4%14 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf13…3366backed Over44c55.16$24 inWon+$30.955648.2%27 W · 29 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over41c49.01$20 inWon+$28.913,73151.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L+55.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Under56c45.16$25 inLost-$25.291,04443.7%456 W · 588 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Over39c42$16 inWon+$25.7411331%35 W · 78 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-28.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d5b…1578backed Under56c35.72$20 inLost-$2023858%138 W · 100 L+14.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Over41c34$14 inWon+$20.0614526.2%38 W · 107 L-11.8wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-27.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Under55c31.08$17 inLost-$17.091,20448.9%589 W · 615 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb305…a400backed Over47c29.79$14 inWon+$15.7933345.3%151 W · 182 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3da…b7adbacked Under74c28.38$21 inLost-$213732.4%12 W · 25 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1812…c143backed Under59c17.21$10 inLost-$10.154065%26 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+39.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.