Fifa International · resolved market
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ccd587c146fe9310bf1024b642d3ca7a9b30eb9085b83b0bfaf7eaf62bb2346
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,029
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,699
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,029 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 13c | 12,123$1,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,539.96 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 19c | 8,129$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560.14 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Under | 1c | 3,876$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 16c | 2,916$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.21 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae5…4f22backed Over | 77c | 2,000$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 184 | 65.8%121 W · 63 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed Under | 1c | 1,960$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 445 | 39.6%176 W · 269 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e97…8ffabacked Under | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 251 | 25.1%63 W · 188 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 16c | 953.58$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.47 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…ffbebacked Over | 79c | 820.46$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.69 | 594 | 53.4%317 W · 277 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…2e83backed Under | 18c | 527.78$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 77c | 475.3$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.32 | 258 | 65.9%170 W · 88 L | +40.1wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa90b…5ca7backed Over | 78c | 384.62$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.62 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 16c | 368.76$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.49 | 481 | 52.4%252 W · 229 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 15c | 345.68$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.72 | 1,560 | 43.8%684 W · 876 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 16c | 299.05$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 1,941 | 35.5%690 W · 1,251 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…e5ebbacked Under | 12c | 273.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 365 | 43.3%158 W · 207 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 12c | 271$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 334 | 43.4%145 W · 189 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 78c | 269.23$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.23 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Under | 16c | 265.11$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.42 | 847 | 51%432 W · 415 L | +10.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 77c | 258.4$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.43 | 289 | 64.4%186 W · 103 L | +42.6wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 76c | 244.1$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.77 | 356 | 58.7%209 W · 147 L | +35.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 17c | 235.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 1,702 | 36.7%625 W · 1,077 L | -31.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 74c | 180.81$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.01 | 1,001 | 53.9%540 W · 461 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 23c | 157.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x348c…c8efbacked Under | 12c | 150.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 332 | 45.5%151 W · 181 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 15c | 131.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Under | 17c | 119.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 360 | 45.3%163 W · 197 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x461b…7360backed Under | 18c | 117.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 15c | 100.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 3,077 | 47%1,447 W · 1,630 L | -11.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43a8…d77fbacked Under | 11c | 95.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 120 | 47.5%57 W · 63 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4206…f874backed Over | 78c | 69.13$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 82 | 70.7%58 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…df76backed Over | 78c | 67$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 18c | 66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 2,453 | 34.7%850 W · 1,603 L | +84.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x831c…ce7dbacked Over | 77c | 58.19$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…b949backed Over | 77c | 56.96$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 273 | 63.4%173 W · 100 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1f…08a6backed Under | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 252 | 21.4%54 W · 198 L | -15.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbed9…bbd3backed Over | 79c | 41.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Over | 80c | 38.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 176 | 29%51 W · 125 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4af8…0f85backed Over | 76c | 16.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f21…8b6abacked Over | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5this page
- Portugal vs. Nigeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Portugal vs. Nigeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Portugal vs. Nigeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
- Portugal vs. Nigeria: Nigeria 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Portugal vs. Nigeria: Nigeria O/U 0.5Over won
- Portugal vs. Nigeria: Nigeria O/U 1.5Under won
- Portugal vs. Nigeria: Nigeria O/U 2.5Under won
- Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 0.5Over won
- Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5Over won
- Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5Under won
- Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5Under won
- Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 5.5Under won
- Portugal vs. Nigeria: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Portugal vs. Nigeria: Portugal O/U 0.5Over won
- Portugal vs. Nigeria: Portugal O/U 1.5Over won
- Portugal vs. Nigeria: Portugal O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Nigeria (-1.5)Portugal won
- Spread: Portugal (-1.5)Nigeria won
- Spread: Portugal (-2.5)Nigeria won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.