Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3afce1ab8b58569f64b579548b062d1f16e2bfdc0113b9b856b79a2c90414a89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigeriaof Portugal, Nigeria
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Portugal | 23c | 5,467$1,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,262.19 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Portugal | 20c | 5,305$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.11 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Nigeria | 75c | 3,352$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.26 | 202 | 62.4%126 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Portugal | 21c | 3,025$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.29 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc2…68cebacked Nigeria | 76c | 2,620$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Portugal | 9c | 2,128$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.26 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Portugal | 29c | 1,432$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.95 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Portugal | 26c | 1,367$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.93 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3275…b8acbacked Nigeria | 72c | 1,357$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.43 | 107 | 62.6%67 W · 40 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…bb35backed Nigeria | 70c | 1,322$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.54 | 432 | 48.4%209 W · 223 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Portugal | 24c | 1,098$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.46 | 1,044 | 43.7%456 W · 588 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce72…cbefbacked Nigeria | 72c | 880.14$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.38 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Portugal | 24c | 847.64$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.39 | 176 | 29%51 W · 125 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…cb96backed Portugal | 28c | 700$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 920 | 38.5%354 W · 566 L | -21.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc48…c120backed Nigeria | 72c | 599.97$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.99 | 374 | 51.6%193 W · 181 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Portugal | 29c | 472.16$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.34 | 1,941 | 35.5%690 W · 1,251 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee0e…38bbbacked Portugal | 13c | 445$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 235 | 29.8%70 W · 165 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Nigeria | 74c | 417.43$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.13 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5887…735ebacked Portugal | 27c | 373.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Nigeria | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 673 | 54.7%368 W · 305 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Portugal | 26c | 293.01$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.39 | 1,204 | 48.9%589 W · 615 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Portugal | 29c | 288.96$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.53 | 2,271 | 39.5%896 W · 1,375 L | +10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5f…7750backed Portugal | 16c | 245$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 143 | 25.9%37 W · 106 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Nigeria | 71c | 211.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.27 | 63 | 73%46 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb93f…4160backed Nigeria | 71c | 211.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.27 | 96 | 62.5%60 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Nigeria | 72c | 204.39$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.7 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba3e…4cbcbacked Nigeria | 72c | 193.39$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.37 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Nigeria | 70c | 189.08$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.96 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Portugal | 28c | 162.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 413 | 44.1%182 W · 231 L | -16.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Nigeria | 71c | 148.51$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 418 | 57.9%242 W · 176 L | +14.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4b…c865backed Portugal | 30c | 140.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03c9…d8c1backed Portugal | 11c | 139.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 131 | 58.8%77 W · 54 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…de1ebacked Nigeria | 72c | 138.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.52 | 121 | 43%52 W · 69 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa14d…45d1backed Portugal | 29c | 131.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 127 | 24.4%31 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb6…67edbacked Portugal | 27c | 124.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Portugal | 29c | 117$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 407 | 36.6%149 W · 258 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…905bbacked Nigeria | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 235 | 40.4%95 W · 140 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Nigeria | 75c | 90.28$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 311 | 49.5%154 W · 157 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Portugal | 31c | 84.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 637 | 45.4%289 W · 348 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Nigeria | 69c | 84$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5145…dd71backed Nigeria | 73c | 83.38$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 140 | 51.4%72 W · 68 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…85f9backed Portugal | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e02…9136backed Portugal | 27c | 72.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d17…0d91backed Nigeria | 72c | 69.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Nigeria | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 479 | 35.1%168 W · 311 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f4…966fbacked Portugal | 17c | 64.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Portugal | 29c | 48.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 831 | 53.3%443 W · 388 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Portugal | 26c | 48.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 2,793 | 46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71a2…e17dbacked Nigeria | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 62 | 71%44 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91df…fd49backed Nigeria | 73c | 32.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 45 | 73.3%33 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Nigeria | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 166 | 59.6%99 W · 67 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Nigeria | 72c | 27.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 155 | 36.8%57 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Nigeria | 71c | 21.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 315 | 50.8%160 W · 155 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Nigeria | 74c | 20.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 481 | 52.4%252 W · 229 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9402…e673backed Nigeria | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52ab…ecebbacked Nigeria | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18d2…e9c3backed Nigeria | 78c | 19.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 147 | 68.7%101 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Portugal (-2.5)this page
- Portugal vs. Nigeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Portugal vs. Nigeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Portugal vs. Nigeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
- Portugal vs. Nigeria: Nigeria 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Portugal vs. Nigeria: Nigeria O/U 0.5Over won
- Portugal vs. Nigeria: Nigeria O/U 1.5Under won
- Portugal vs. Nigeria: Nigeria O/U 2.5Under won
- Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 0.5Over won
- Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5Over won
- Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5Over won
- Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5Under won
- Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5Under won
- Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 5.5Under won
- Portugal vs. Nigeria: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Portugal vs. Nigeria: Portugal O/U 0.5Over won
- Portugal vs. Nigeria: Portugal O/U 1.5Over won
- Portugal vs. Nigeria: Portugal O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Nigeria (-1.5)Portugal won
- Spread: Portugal (-1.5)Nigeria won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.