Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x151fcd56271bc55a4d0f5c7d94dd9d208ec22a788dfd5478b086d7c00b7489f5

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jun 10, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $47,444
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $51,275

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,444 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2a69…d2f7backed Over	19c	5,045$945 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$945.28	3,992	24.9%994 W · 2,998 L	-47.0wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over	21c	3,295$676 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$675.61	592	30.1%178 W · 414 L	-6.8wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98e5…f069backed Over	14c	3,000$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$410	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.6wins	-0.21per pick	33cpaid	-72.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over	15c	1,694$262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.96	2,973	28%831 W · 2,142 L	-132.5wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-39%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over	21c	1,429$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	454	28%127 W · 327 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under	78c	1,076$842 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$234.46	4,457	37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L	+31.0wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0684…d1fabacked Over	20c	1,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	108	32.4%35 W · 73 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12a2…0e71backed Under	78c	638.13$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.13	191	58.1%111 W · 80 L	-4.6wins	-0.02per pick	61cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75fc…0a4cbacked Over	21c	619.03$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127	122	23%28 W · 94 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5145…dd71backed Under	78c	600.18$471 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$129.14	140	51.4%72 W · 68 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Over	20c	591.99$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.66	1,873	48.4%906 W · 967 L	+14.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over	22c	555$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.1	438	26.3%115 W · 323 L	+12.6wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf15d…0fa4backed Over	22c	519.95$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.39	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-2.5wins	-0.13per pick	23cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Under	78c	497.28$388 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109.4	145	64.1%93 W · 52 L	+10.1wins	+0.07per pick	57cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Under	80c	450.88$359 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.67	418	57.9%242 W · 176 L	+14.9wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc48…c120backed Under	78c	409.63$320 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.02	374	51.6%193 W · 181 L	+8.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e61…0e06backed Over	19c	400$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	331	20.8%69 W · 262 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cd9…51d0backed Over	20c	395$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79	110	27.3%30 W · 80 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Under	80c	364.06$291 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.81	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36b0…1a94backed Under	79c	345.57$273 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.57	193	24.4%47 W · 146 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1399…48c8backed Over	15c	333.3$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	258	65.9%170 W · 88 L	+40.1wins	+0.16per pick	50cpaid	+54.4%equal weight	66+0.14 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under	79c	319.99$253 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.05	3,731	51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L	+55.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Over	19c	299.75$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.95	176	29%51 W · 125 L	-8.7wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x22ac…7409backed Under	79c	273.43$216 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.55	23	60.9%14 W · 9 L	-2.9wins	-0.13per pick	73cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over	27c	245.01$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.84	876	51.1%448 W · 428 L	+25.3wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7f9…1fcabacked Over	22c	244.91$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.88	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5da…209fbacked Under	80c	232.31$186 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.46	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.08per pick	72cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe569…e759backed Over	22c	230.55$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	524	41.4%217 W · 307 L	+5.7wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Under	80c	223.19$178 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.53	848	44.3%376 W · 472 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd871…6bbabacked Over	20c	216.03$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.21	151	41.7%63 W · 88 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	+31.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Under	79c	206.66$163 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.4	1,044	43.7%456 W · 588 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf79c…cb96backed Over	20c	200$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	920	38.5%354 W · 566 L	-21.8wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-10%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Over	24c	199.99$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.37	1,795	44.2%794 W · 1,001 L	-12.9wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc7…43e5backed Over	17c	170.36$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.65	138	30.4%42 W · 96 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7a9…87e2backed Over	21c	158$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.91	413	44.1%182 W · 231 L	-16.2wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b0b…612abacked Over	20c	157.65$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.53	72	19.4%14 W · 58 L	-3.9wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Over	18c	153.28$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.17	2,626	41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x160d…6f25backed Under	80c	151.22$121 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.24	783	17.4%136 W · 647 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xada6…9447backed Under	79c	146$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.58	29	69%20 W · 9 L	+3.3wins	+0.11per pick	58cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Under	80c	143.1$114 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.62	2,271	39.5%896 W · 1,375 L	+10.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x926d…f416backed Over	18c	137.45$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6882…6f08backed Under	78c	128.21$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.21	224	66.1%148 W · 76 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	65cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ee7…f36ebacked Under	80c	125$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	112	53.6%60 W · 52 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba3e…4cbcbacked Under	80c	125$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	33	66.7%22 W · 11 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	71cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x155d…3ec8backed Over	20c	120$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	255	32.9%84 W · 171 L	-4.8wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1118…028cbacked Over	17c	119.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-3.0wins	-0.23per pick	31cpaid	-74.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb821…5cddbacked Under	80c	117.39$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.48	94	63.8%60 W · 34 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	66cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0a8…2282backed Over	18c	116.67$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	80	36.3%29 W · 51 L	-6.6wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed Over	11c	103.5$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.39	237	43.9%104 W · 133 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over	17c	103.09$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	356	58.7%209 W · 147 L	+35.0wins	+0.10per pick	49cpaid	+28%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x811c…fd36backed Under	79c	101.27$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.27	187	69.5%130 W · 57 L	+8.5wins	+0.05per pick	65cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e46…5737backed Under	79c	100$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21	94	54.3%51 W · 43 L	-4.1wins	-0.04per pick	59cpaid	-11%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa237…d59abacked Under	79c	100$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21	35	71.4%25 W · 10 L	+2.4wins	+0.07per pick	65cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Over	19c	99.99$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	1,204	48.9%589 W · 615 L	+18.2wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1f0…6fb4backed Over	20c	92.97$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.59	184	35.3%65 W · 119 L	-8.8wins	-0.05per pick	40cpaid	-21%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ef5…e92fbacked Over	21c	92.18$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	36	33.3%12 W · 24 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee5f…5468backed Under	61c	82.13$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.03	88	53.4%47 W · 41 L	+4.5wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ae1…f481backed Over	20c	80$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	-2.1wins	-0.09per pick	48cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Over	28c	79.44$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.14	387	45%174 W · 213 L	-5.8wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c1f…08a6backed Over	22c	50$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.9	252	21.4%54 W · 198 L	-15.6wins	-0.06per pick	28cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Over	31c	50$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.55	1,380	40.2%555 W · 825 L	-51.6wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-23%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ce6…1e03backed Under	80c	50$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	72	65.3%47 W · 25 L	+2.7wins	+0.04per pick	61cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under	79c	42$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.82	1,688	54.4%918 W · 770 L	+31.4wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71a2…e17dbacked Under	78c	40.58$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.93	62	71%44 W · 18 L	+2.7wins	+0.04per pick	67cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x81e5…3303backed Under	79c	40.51$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.51	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	67cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2126…aeebbacked Over	30c	40$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	414	44.9%186 W · 228 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca1a…312fbacked Under	80c	36.9$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.38	39	56.4%22 W · 17 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	60cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b6d…db4fbacked Under	78c	32.05$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.05	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	-2.0wins	-0.14per pick	67cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under	80c	28.6$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.72	481	52.4%252 W · 229 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc5e…f0c5backed Under	79c	26.08$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.4	56	80.4%45 W · 11 L	+2.7wins	+0.05per pick	76cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8221…2217backed Under	79c	25.32$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.32	58	79.3%46 W · 12 L	+8.0wins	+0.14per pick	65cpaid	+22.3%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1c66…e371backed Under	80c	25.2$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.08	847	51%432 W · 415 L	+10.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6b7…47e7backed Under	80c	25$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	48	66.7%32 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	66cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under	79c	25$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.25	935	42.2%395 W · 540 L	-27.8wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under	78c	21.01$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.55	508	33.3%169 W · 339 L	-35.7wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2ab8…bb2bbacked Under	77c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.6	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	-2.5wins	-0.09per pick	65cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d7c…9558backed Under	80c	18.75$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.75	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	75cpaid	-15%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under	77c	16.3$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.75	2,380	53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L	+76.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x69ee…6e35backed Under	80c	15$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.06	436	53.7%234 W · 202 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfc4…3b73backed Under	80c	12.5$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.5	61	67.2%41 W · 20 L	+2.7wins	+0.04per pick	63cpaid	+11%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5this page
Portugal vs. Nigeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Portugal vs. Nigeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
Portugal vs. Nigeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Nigeria 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Nigeria O/U 0.5Over won
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Nigeria O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Nigeria O/U 2.5Under won
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 0.5Over won
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5Over won
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5Over won
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5Under won
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 5.5Under won
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Portugal O/U 0.5Over won
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Portugal O/U 1.5Over won
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Portugal O/U 2.5Under won
Spread: Nigeria (-1.5)Portugal won
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)Nigeria won
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)Nigeria won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event