NHL · resolved market
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43bc595b72f560bf96920e27c01dca82d2b01e6833e75cff6f5ca9623f63ad0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Avalancheof Avalanche, Maple Leafs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,973
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Maple Leafs | 61c | 3,255$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Avalanche | 39c | 1,090$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.59 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…61bbbacked Maple Leafs | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 412 | 48.3%199 W · 213 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Avalanche | 42c | 447.62$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.62 | 181 | 36.5%66 W · 115 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Avalanche | 42c | 437$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.51 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Avalanche | 41c | 425.99$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.11 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Avalanche | 54c | 414$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.07 | 345 | 38.6%133 W · 212 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Maple Leafs | 62c | 387.1$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Avalanche | 38c | 367.1$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.6 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0f…a571backed Avalanche | 42c | 358.24$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.78 | 187 | 44.9%84 W · 103 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966d…eaa5backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Maple Leafs | 57c | 232.33$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.43 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Avalanche | 38c | 224$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.88 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Avalanche | 40c | 210.66$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.28 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…8ba0backed Avalanche | 42c | 205.43$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.15 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Avalanche | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…5df2backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Avalanche | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Maple Leafs | 58c | 144.57$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.85 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Avalanche | 42c | 144.57$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.85 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Avalanche | 38c | 140.32$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 133.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 114$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Maple Leafs | 60c | 85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb821…5cddbacked Maple Leafs | 61c | 64.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Maple Leafs | 60c | 63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Avalanche | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Avalanche | 39c | 56.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Maple Leafs | 59c | 54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Avalanche | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 145 | 42.8%62 W · 83 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Avalanche | 42c | 47.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…9305backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…a8edbacked Avalanche | 40c | 37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Maple Leafs | 61c | 34.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…4d2cbacked Maple Leafs | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x230a…1f46backed Avalanche | 43c | 29.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdb…ae41backed Avalanche | 40c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Maple Leafs | 59c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb717…a67fbacked Avalanche | 40c | 26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…8f17backed Avalanche | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff8…7073backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)this page
- Avalanche vs. Maple LeafsAvalanche won
- Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.