TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Avalancheof Avalanche, Maple Leafs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$657,788
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$734,268

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $657,788 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 368 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9a4d…619abacked Maple Leafs41c208,979$85,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85,55010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Maple Leafs38c65,238$24,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,790.5767051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Avalanche61c60,626$36,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,644.1425449.2%125 W · 129 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Avalanche59c57,404$33,869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,535.8456152%292 W · 269 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Avalanche59c53,191$31,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,886.482,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Maple Leafs40c32,947$13,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,121.781,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Avalanche59c30,794$18,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,509.1447951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Avalanche60c25,154$15,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,950.211,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Avalanche60c25,000$15,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,9251,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Avalanche60c18,523$11,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,501.112,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5836…4d03backed Maple Leafs39c13,000$5,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0708247.6%39 W · 43 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Avalanche59c12,400$7,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,08411745.3%53 W · 64 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Avalanche62c12,000$7,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,60061748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Maple Leafs39c10,921$4,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,296.8715749.7%78 W · 79 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Maple Leafs38c10,004$3,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,801.5238844.6%173 W · 215 L-17.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Avalanche61c8,197$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,196.7250049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Maple Leafs39c8,116$3,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,165.2412047.5%57 W · 63 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Avalanche59c8,000$4,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,26010848.1%52 W · 56 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Avalanche61c7,800$4,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,04213553.3%72 W · 63 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Avalanche62c6,575$4,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,498.3514553.1%77 W · 68 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Maple Leafs39c6,500$2,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5351,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Avalanche76c5,725$4,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,396.61,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Maple Leafs30c5,443$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,620.2318547%87 W · 98 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Avalanche61c5,416$3,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,119.4661950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9e6…2f0fbacked Avalanche61c4,918$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,918.03683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick66cpaid+30.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Maple Leafs1c4,567$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.152504.8%12 W · 238 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+159.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bbe…9384backed Maple Leafs39c4,500$1,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,75510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6818…d162backed Avalanche61c4,490$2,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,751.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Avalanche59c4,312$2,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,751.9152050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Avalanche62c4,000$2,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,52089547%421 W · 474 L-18.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6e3…6dfebacked Maple Leafs12c3,965$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4804856.3%27 W · 21 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+16.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Avalanche62c3,946$2,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,499.6333243.7%145 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x56c2…17bfbacked Avalanche60c3,666$2,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,483.8625447.2%120 W · 134 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce99…637ebacked Maple Leafs40c3,650$1,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,46026946.1%124 W · 145 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Avalanche59c3,616$2,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,500.641,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Avalanche61c3,300$2,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,28744551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Avalanche62c3,011$1,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,154.1689249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Avalanche60c3,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,200.0133345.6%152 W · 181 L+0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Maple Leafs18c2,877$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.872,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Maple Leafs7c2,729$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.7989636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Avalanche59c2,670$1,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,094.783149.5%411 W · 420 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Avalanche61c2,541$1,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,001.0162249.4%307 W · 315 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Maple Leafs40c2,500$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00023047.4%109 W · 121 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46f4…5bc0backed Maple Leafs40c2,500$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0007138%27 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Maple Leafs0c2,495$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.577450.7%5 W · 740 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94fc…b58abacked Avalanche60c2,425$1,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9701100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x503d…928bbacked Maple Leafs39c2,400$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$935.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Avalanche60c2,300$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$919.9991653.9%494 W · 422 L+39.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Avalanche60c2,222$1,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.875251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Avalanche61c2,201$1,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856.5579350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Avalanche60c2,165$1,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$860.2845955.1%253 W · 206 L+1.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Maple Leafs3c2,153$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7254418%98 W · 446 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70cf…f6cebacked Maple Leafs29c2,115$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.63636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b33…3d6abacked Maple Leafs40c2,100$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8401323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.9wins-0.30per pick53cpaid-63.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Maple Leafs13c2,013$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.3399638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed Maple Leafs39c2,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7804346.5%20 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x936f…d171backed Maple Leafs39c2,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.848134.6%28 W · 53 L-8.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-23.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Avalanche62c1,995$1,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758.7293953.6%503 W · 436 L+29.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x293f…3e52backed Maple Leafs40c1,875$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7505736.8%21 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Avalanche60c1,774$1,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.711,09250.4%550 W · 542 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce4d…a7fabacked Avalanche61c1,700$1,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66625555.3%141 W · 114 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf62b…844abacked Avalanche63c1,583$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.6714654.1%79 W · 67 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Avalanche62c1,550$961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58986649.9%432 W · 434 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Maple Leafs15c1,491$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.211,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Maple Leafs15c1,449$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.533,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Avalanche60c1,250$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50042847.2%202 W · 226 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9764…c40cbacked Maple Leafs40c1,250$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008547.1%40 W · 45 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x03d9…e693backed Maple Leafs2c1,250$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5557.3%4 W · 51 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick3cpaid+70.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x29ae…4d2cbacked Avalanche73c1,243$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.317354.8%40 W · 33 L+7.0wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+12.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Avalanche62c1,200$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45670249%344 W · 358 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Maple Leafs14c1,170$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.7134538.6%133 W · 212 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x19ed…6dc8backed Avalanche61c1,147$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.9614753.7%79 W · 68 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Avalanche62c1,131$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.768360.2%50 W · 33 L+7.3wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Avalanche59c1,100$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.461,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Maple Leafs14c1,098$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.2616447%77 W · 87 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x244f…6ffbbacked Maple Leafs40c1,075$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Avalanche76c1,062$805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.142,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b1a…5abfbacked Maple Leafs37c1,050$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.54045%18 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Maple Leafs10c1,023$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.343742.3%185 W · 252 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Maple Leafs40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4007338.4%28 W · 45 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbec5…8f77backed Maple Leafs6c999.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608938.2%34 W · 55 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a89…2f26backed Avalanche62c999.99$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38070547.7%336 W · 369 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Avalanche60c991$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.41,23053.7%661 W · 569 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae7a…5657backed Avalanche61c987$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.935042%21 W · 29 L-6.5wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-21.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9b7a…bc22backed Maple Leafs12c958.33$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11535829.3%105 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6771…b783backed Avalanche61c931.15$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.152161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf56a…fe7cbacked Avalanche61c917.75$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.922250%11 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8927…f5c6backed Maple Leafs40c875$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35012436.3%45 W · 79 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Maple Leafs38c857.3$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.7728251.8%146 W · 136 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8ab…f5c1backed Avalanche61c821.34$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.347250%36 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba94…c78bbacked Avalanche61c819.67$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.67977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick69cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe206…38cebacked Avalanche61c819.67$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.678959.6%53 W · 36 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Avalanche60c809$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.684953.8%457 W · 392 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed Avalanche60c800$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3242347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Avalanche61c796.72$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.7231848.1%153 W · 165 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07fb…f0d5backed Maple Leafs13c784.52$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1054233.3%14 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Maple Leafs38c774.13$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.441,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3bfa…bc94backed Maple Leafs13c769.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006533.8%22 W · 43 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-22.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Maple Leafs37c763.16$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.3763249.5%313 W · 319 L+2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Avalanche61c750$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.51,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.