Commodities · resolved market
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43d46137503cafe533196f4a1ec9724b70f83dfa67bf3f78ad7401a26e3d373c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed No | 64c | 8,998$5,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,261.44 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6e…7f53backed Yes | 29c | 3,780$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.07 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 58c | 2,141$1,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.08 | 942 | 40.2%379 W · 563 L | -69.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb971…e7aebacked No | 48c | 1,651$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.95 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…8554backed No | 36c | 1,548$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.65 | 62 | 67.7%42 W · 20 L | +13.6wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a2…c9b7backed Yes | 62c | 1,096$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.44 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 18c | 1,010$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.59 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1da8…aa05backed Yes | 73c | 931.43$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.09 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 40c | 827.66$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.99 | 1,286 | 24.2%311 W · 975 L | -58.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed No | 51c | 720.08$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.79 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 19c | 600$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes | 14c | 497.1$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.59 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 43c | 491.59$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.28 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | +20.4wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…e632backed Yes | 7c | 411.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed Yes | 63c | 410.21$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.77 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 26c | 370.36$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.34 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb307…9c25backed Yes | 6c | 350$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 48c | 328.56$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.47 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -6.9wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb567…1575backed Yes | 19c | 311.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 33c | 292$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.79 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 35c | 224.13$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.81 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 67c | 211.77$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.72 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 55c | 205.93$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.26 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 33c | 200$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 29c | 192$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 8c | 170$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa41d…53e9backed No | 32c | 135.28$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.42 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed Yes | 23c | 107$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +206.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3299…0b7abacked No | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb46c…c34dbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 90.18$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 1,051 | 34.7%365 W · 686 L | -93.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No | 38c | 85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.95 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Yes | 74c | 74.32$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf2…137bbacked No | 35c | 51.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 65c | 51.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a9…339ebacked No | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x403f…94f1backed Yes | 57c | 37.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1f…8f78backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -14.2wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in July?this page
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in July?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 in July?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in July?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in July?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.40 in July?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.60 in July?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.00 in July?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.20 in July?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 in July?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in July?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in July?Yes won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in July?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.