Commodities · resolved market
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd52db5e048427e7283db44a29909e2ec0c4a4296c48e59115f46663b7e1d091c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 66c | 5,712$3,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,762.56 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes | 41c | 2,609$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,540.63 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 22c | 1,572$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,226.5 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 19c | 1,519$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,228.62 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | +20.4wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Yes | 45c | 1,518$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.83 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x403f…94f1backed Yes | 50c | 1,482$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.9 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 932.32$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.37 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 860.9$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.57 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 26c | 824$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.99 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a45…f628backed No | 79c | 500$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a8…4421backed Yes | 61c | 487.49$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes | 45c | 475.16$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.34 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6e…7f53backed Yes | 44c | 387.96$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 307.64$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.01 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed No | 40c | 256.68$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.84 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 50c | 250$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 7c | 245.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec4d…be21backed Yes | 52c | 227.25$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.08 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…17adbacked Yes | 55c | 209.12$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.12 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 48c | 188.72$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.8 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked No | 51c | 180.26$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.75 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes | 61c | 162.3$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.69 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 23c | 154$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.58 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeda5…e16dbacked Yes | 67c | 145$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | +11.5wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 18c | 144$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 26c | 139$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.37 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +13.7wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…b39cbacked No | 29c | 131.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…d3ddbacked Yes | 46c | 108.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5154…a301backed Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +13.2wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd385…dd8abacked No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2543…f49fbacked No | 51c | 97.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 65c | 94.31$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 119 | 29.4%35 W · 84 L | -18.7wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…b4a7backed No | 36c | 91.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 32c | 86.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…e632backed Yes | 55c | 56.58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked Yes | 56c | 51.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 51c | 50.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15e1…1b3dbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 97 | 9.3%9 W · 88 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…450abacked No | 54c | 48.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…1a2abacked Yes | 80c | 46.05$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No | 57c | 45.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 51c | 42.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 52c | 41.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 40.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d78…c93dbacked Yes | 61c | 40.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 48c | 40.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x333d…e8b7backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…a39dbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f71…719abacked Yes | 69c | 38.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 46c | 38.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbe…2520backed Yes | 67c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa41d…53e9backed No | 36c | 33.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…b686backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b33…3134backed Yes | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked No | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 50c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -14.2wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2539…34f0backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…b9cdbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in July?this page
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in July?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in July?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 in July?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in July?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in July?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.40 in July?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.60 in July?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.00 in July?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.20 in July?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 in July?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in July?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in July?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.