Commodities · resolved market
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac5f1252992d220a08f709a752bf2ec17041c3cb5bcb126a84dc7bccfd4e1a1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,898
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc6a2…c9b7backed No | 48c | 1,410$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.86 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…8554backed No | 35c | 1,065$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.43 | 62 | 67.7%42 W · 20 L | +13.6wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Yes | 65c | 1,000$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.54 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6e…7f53backed Yes | 48c | 994$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 51c | 900$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x403f…94f1backed No | 39c | 683.18$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.52 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 61c | 626.22$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.34 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | +20.4wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…17adbacked Yes | 58c | 532.76$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.76 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 71c | 500.01$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 60c | 500$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da8…aa05backed No | 66c | 453.96$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Yes | 38c | 393.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.03 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 42c | 351.43$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.47 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 55c | 302.64$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.47 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -6.9wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed No | 36c | 244.77$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.26 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 53c | 199.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 58c | 190$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 21c | 187.66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 54c | 165.22$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed No | 51c | 158.12$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.86 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 154.89$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.37 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 59c | 105$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.25 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd7…e0bdbacked Yes | 54c | 103.09$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x26bb…03cfbacked No | 42c | 58.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Yes | 60c | 45.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +7.2wins | +0.24per pick | 53cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b38abacked No | 46c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…2fffbacked No | 46c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb0…2b36backed No | 46c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf0…9180backed No | 46c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fa…d3fbbacked No | 46c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa552…3306backed No | 46c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa74b…3241backed No | 46c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe518…f0fcbacked No | 46c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -14.2wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…ea5cbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in July?this page
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in July?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in July?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 in July?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in July?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in July?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.40 in July?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.60 in July?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.00 in July?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.20 in July?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 in July?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in July?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in July?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.