Movies · resolved market
Will "Love is Blind: Season 10" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4407ceba2997a735b5abcbc81eb29636a6cea3d29230d1388ce7e418df9c00f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,121
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,121 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5bf…8763backed Yes | 17c | 1,522$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.2 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf49d…7e5bbacked Yes | 71c | 1,188$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.34 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -6.9wins | -0.33per pick | 57cpaid | -60%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6159…7501backed No | 80c | 796$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.2 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbf…7328backed Yes | 20c | 744$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 51c | 703.09$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.01 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 38c | 639$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.2 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked Yes | 18c | 616$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.88 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…9cefbacked Yes | 19c | 532$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77e5…ec41backed No | 28c | 400$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +109.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 40c | 303.35$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.48 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 63c | 300.16$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.53 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed No | 78c | 270$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.53 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 18c | 201.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e65…fe79backed Yes | 75c | 179.53$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 146$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 37c | 143.28$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…dbd4backed Yes | 18c | 122$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 62cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa1…d4c8backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 47c | 96.89$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 25c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f6…5d2dbacked Yes | 21c | 77.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…6622backed Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 68c | 58.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f3…be1dbacked Yes | 20c | 52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +30%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 75c | 50.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…1951backed Yes | 54c | 43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…f566backed Yes | 33c | 41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | +10.8wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 59c | 34.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 33.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 60c | 21.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 60c | 20.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 76c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Love is Blind: Season 10" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?this page
- Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "Reality Check: Inside America's Next Top Model" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "The Lincoln Lawyer: Season 4" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "The Night Agent: Season 3" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.